Ukraine has been an ally since 1991 when the Soviet Union broke up. They are one of the only democratic countries in the region and a major check on Russian aggression, considering how bad this war has gone for Russia, with estimates of 200k+ casualities on the Russian side.
And first of all, Russia launched an unprovoked invasion of its neighbor and its soldiers have committed war crimes, deportation of children and too many rapes and executions of Ukraine's citizens to count. Also, it’s important to realize that the U.S. is not a combatant. We have provided the Ukrainians with weapons, training, and financial aid, but we have not sent our forces to do any of the fighting. The Ukrainians themselves are deeply committed to pushing Russia out of their territory. To suggest that the U.S. hold back from liberating these territories is to suggest that the U.S. abandon those innocent people to their horrific fate.
But looking at the changes in Russia’s domestic policy and society since the war began, it’s clear that Putin is reorienting his entire country toward a protracted confrontation with the West. That means that no matter how the Ukraine War resolves, there is going to be a long-term, Cold War style confrontation with Russia — possibly even after Putin is out of power, depending on who succeeds him. Every Russian tank and missile launcher that the Ukrainians destroy, therefore, weakens Russia’s hand in this eventual confrontation. The U.S. and Europe are achieving the destruction of their enemy’s military without taking a single casualty of their own. All they’re sending is spare equipment and money. And not even that much money, really — The Korean War, in its final year, cost about 14% of America’s entire GDP; the Ukraine War is costing 0.17%.
And finally, stopping Russia is extremely helpful for stopping China. If China sees Russia successfully conquer a quarter of Ukraine, it will be emboldened to attack Taiwan. If China’s leaders see a Ukrainian defeat come after U.S. pressure forced the country to concede, it will raise serious questions about America’s resolve in defending the liberal international order.
So a successful outcome in the Ukraine War — meaning Ukraine driving Russia out of all the territory it has seized since 2022 — will do much more than simply save a bunch of Ukrainian lives. It has the potential to short-circuit the clash of liberal vs. authoritarian great powers that was shaping up just a few months ago.
Protecting the innocent people of Ukraine from atrocity is important. Enforcing the norm of fixed international borders is important. Weakening Putin’s Russia is important. But if there’s even a small chance of preventing World War 3, I think that’s easily worth a few tens of billions of dollars.
