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538 flipped back to Harris (ughhh) đź‘Ž

ugaballers said:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Dang it!!! Thoughts on this - need something positive
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Trump's margin on polymarket has jumped 16 pts in the last two days, probably mainly due to early voting ending, and what the totals signal.
 
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This is going to come down to how has the better GOTV machine. That's the main reason I'm going with Harris to win tonight.
 
shonuff253 said:
This is going to come down to how has the better GOTV machine. That's the main reason I'm going with Harris to win tonight.
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I don't doubt they have the better organization in terms of getting out the vote. But I believe the ultimate get out the vote machine is the cost of groceries and shelter / housing. It is a very high bar for an incumbent party to win when 70%+ of the Country believes we are on the wrong path.
 
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kckd said:
Positive? Trump no longer a viable candidate for Republicans....hopefully.
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Win or lose, we'll not see Trump campaigning again and i think that will be good. We'll know very soon which direction its going, if Trump wins Georgia by 2% or more, he'll most likely have a good night. if Ga goes into tomorrow undecided with just a razor thin Trump victory then Harris probably wins .
 
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DawgWCK said:
Win or lose, we'll not see Trump campaigning again and i think that will be good. We'll know very soon which direction its going, if Trump wins Georgia by 2% or more, he'll most likely have a good night. if Ga goes into tomorrow undecided with just a razor thin Trump victory then Harris probably wins .
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GA doesn't matter.

Penn, Wisconsin, Michigan. She needs those three. If she wins GA, she'll win those three as well. GA matters for Trump. If he loses GA, he'll lose all of the three Rust Belt battlegrounds in all likelihood.
 
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DawgWCK said:
Win or lose, we'll not see Trump campaigning again and i think that will be good. We'll know very soon which direction its going, if Trump wins Georgia by 2% or more, he'll most likely have a good night. if Ga goes into tomorrow undecided with just a razor thin Trump victory then Harris probably wins .
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That’s a pretty good key. But I think Trump still wins if Wisconsin doesnt go to Harris as expected. Some wobbly polls there the last couple days.
 
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Could be wrong but I highly doubt “the appointed one” takes GA
 
kckd said:
GA doesn't matter.

Penn, Wisconsin, Michigan. She needs those three. If she wins GA, she'll win those three as well. GA matters for Trump. If he loses GA, he'll lose all of the three Rust Belt battlegrounds in all likelihood.
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Magin is what I was referring to in Georgia as i am fairly sure he wins Ga , if Trump wins somewhat comfortable suspect 1,2 or 3 of the Rust Belt states follow thru. We just don't know, we shall see.
 
DawgWCK said:
Win or lose, we'll not see Trump campaigning again and i think that will be good. We'll know very soon which direction its going, if Trump wins Georgia by 2% or more, he'll most likely have a good night. if Ga goes into tomorrow undecided with just a razor thin Trump victory then Harris probably wins .
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Don is like a vampire. You'll have drive a stake through his heart to get him out of the public eye and somebody will have to take the keys to the Republican party away from him or he'll make himself Chairman for life. Don't know who that is but if he loses he's going to go scorched earth blaming every Republican that didn't kiss his ass. Kemp will get another round if he doesn't win. I'm sure Brian took one for the party to endorse him but you know he hates his guts.

I think Georgia will depend on the demographics of who doesn't turn out to vote today and how many educated suburban voters that supported him last two elections have had enough of the show. Based on early voting demographics, Harris would be most likely to win but there's 4M potential voters out there somewhere.
 
Dillenger1914 said:
Absolutely no one knows who will win. It will take several days for all the Voting to be completed and counted again for accuracy.

Just excited for our process to play out and for the work of the American people to get done, regardless who wins.
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Our election process is broken.

Just wait for all the excuses why ballots can't be counted in present day when counting votes wasn't an issue 30 years ago.
 
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Dawg 'n IT said:
Our current way of voting is slower with more complications than any time in our history. It's broken.
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It's slower because 50+ different jurisdictions get to make the rules on how their citizens vote. And then lawyers from both parties tie it up in litigation slowing it even more.

You want it streamlined and faster? Call your congressman and senators and ask to amend constitution and federalize the election process.

Until then....this is what we got.
 
jlstone412 said:
It's slower because 50+ different jurisdictions get to make the rules on how their citizens vote. And then lawyers from both parties tie it up in litigation slowing it even more.

You want it streamlined and faster? Call your congressman and senators and ask to amend constitution and federalize the election process.

Until then....this is what we got.
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Really? How many jurisdictions did we have 30 years ago?

Computerized voting to this degree isn't what we had 30 years ago compounded with expanded early voting as we know it todat.
 
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Dillenger1914 said:
Absolutely no one knows who will win. It will take several days for all the Voting to be completed and counted again for accuracy.

Just excited for our process to play out and for the work of the American people to get done, regardless who wins.
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Yeah the longer it is delayed the better chance Kamala wins. They will find some missing ballots somewhere!
 
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