Someone can be a historically good pollster and have a bad poll that's outside several standard deviations from another poll in the same state, over very close time frames. Maybe she's more accurate than Emerson this time. We'll see soon.
Harris up in IOWA in latest poll …
- Thread starter PharmDawg08
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Someone can be a historically good pollster and have a bad poll that's outside several standard deviations from another poll in the same state, over very close time frames. Maybe she's more accurate than Emerson this time. We'll see soon.
If he doesn't break 8 in Iowa, he's cooked and he immediately becomes a flight risk this week.
I didn't read them. Clicked in and was wondering why you'd read all that from a single, random voter.
People are just misinformed. What abortion ban is Trump putting into place? If you don’t remember, the Supreme Court overturned roe v wade. Trump didn’t put any federal abortion ban in place. And those saying he is going to do all those bad shit, he was president for 4 years and never started wars, no federal abortion ban, etc.
they are not misinformed. they are pissed.
Iowa's six week ban is real, and it is real because the R legislature put it in place after Roe v. Wade was struck (with votes from three Trump judges). The R supreme court in Iowa overturned a lower court ruling to allow it to stand.
Ds have just branded it a Trump ban because - that's how politics works (or doesn't work). Sorry if that doesn't seem fair.
Ann Selzer is literally the only poll to pay attention to. You trumpers can keep your head in the sand, but Harris leading Trump in Iowa by 3 pts is a HUGE red flag even if Trump does win Iowa. This should be common sense. By the way, Selzer was the only poll that had Trump by 8 pts in 2016 when everyone single other poll had Hillary walking about with it.
And look what it’s done to our country. Most young men have become pus@&$@ because of them.
Sounds great, sir. We'll see what trends carry over to actual voting and if a one-off that goes completely against other indications and data was the only poll or data point that predicted what will happen. If your own head isn't in the proverbial sand, a bit more discussion and actual hard data (vs. a single poll) to consider:
That's not the discussion. But, thanks for the in-depth analysis.
If by “trash” you mean one of most accurate pollsters in 2020 (their last poll was within a half point of the actual results) then yes, they are trash. 🙄🤦🏻♂️
Saw that last night. Trump's team should be running the MI clips in PA and the PA clips in MI.
CRUZ wins Texas even with all the $$$$$$$ the Dems spent on that Senate race
How’s that Iowa vote turning out for you?This pollster has gotten Iowa right within 1-2 pts in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
- The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”www.desmoinesregister.com
12 points he is winning by here. Freaking 12. That girl’s career should be over.
Can I pull my head out of the sand ?
How did that work out?This pollster has gotten Iowa right within 1-2 pts in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
- The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”www.desmoinesregister.com
Atlas was (for the second election in a row) the most accurate pollster this year.
Don't tell me...who won Iowa?This pollster has gotten Iowa right within 1-2 pts in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
- The poll shows that women — particularly those who are older or are politically independent — are driving the late shift toward Harris.
Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how
The new Iowa Poll shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 3 points. Pollster J. Ann Selzer: “It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming.”www.desmoinesregister.com
of course, Crickets... ole Pharm has zero credibility. he only knows hysteria and talking points. you confront him with facts, and he turtles right up.
Yep...that Nostradamian prediction didn’t end very well....
Yep... I have yo laugh when someone said that about atlas. Lol. Yet they believe some moron who said Trump could lose Iowa. Red eagle politics who does a terrific job obliterated this selzer data. He was dead on how idiotic the numbers that were thrown out there. This borders on election interference.
A couple more follow-ups, as this entire thread is a prime example of the arrogant 'Dem-splaining' that was happening just prior to and on election day. It is a great summary of how data-driven discussion is often impossible by those driven by emotions and wish-casting.
Kamala had a higher probability of winning that you have of getting ole Pharm to reply. the guy hates facts, the way... the way... well, the way Dems hate facts... ( i was gonna say the way cats hate water... but more cats like water than Dems like facts)
That worked out well. Trump winning by 13%.
