Dawgchat Presidential Poll
- Thread starter Troubadawg
- Start date
It’s his largest voting block!Biden boat parade:
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEightprojects.fivethirtyeight.com
Project 538? Might as well ask Donna Brazile who she thinks will win. Lol
*not directed at you. Directed at OP
before I vote a question, If I am right do I get an honorary political science degree from Columbia, Oxford or Stanford? You know since the real guys like Snuffaluffagus and Maddow who actually have one whiffed last time. I mean damn, Maddow has a doctorate in political science from Oxford and she would have failed this poll miserably in 2016
Yep. Stock investors are demanding higher tax rates for themselves and for businesses. High tax rates and reduced profits mean companies can finally begin to hire people again. Biden pointed out that nobody has been hiring since Barack left office. Stock investors are also demanding more regulations be put on small business, in order to get commerce moving again. Investors are also demanding that we get involved in world-governing bodies that supersede Congress. No need for a body that is forced to listen to voters. Voters are not well educated, and too often engage in racist colonial thinking.
Young people want to end US sovereignty, and realize they dont need to have a voice in their own governance, as long as wise unelected foreign bureaucrats put their best interests at heart.
Lets act global, people.
Young people want to end US sovereignty, and realize they dont need to have a voice in their own governance, as long as wise unelected foreign bureaucrats put their best interests at heart.
Lets act global, people.
And for those who claim Trump didn’t handle Covid correctly and should have followed the science.
President—Forecasting the US 2020 elections
Our final pre-election forecast is that Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral collegeprojects.economist.com
538, The Economist, HuffPost and all the other hack polling firms had Hillary winning big in 2016 as well. They will be wrong even worse this year... Btw, Trafalgar Group was the only polling firm to call Trump’s win including almost to the exact EV number.
Signs That Trump Isn’t Going to Win on Nov. 3
It’s a foregone conclusion and must now be faced. Republicans have worried. Democrats have gloated. Libertarians, Independents, and Reformers have all weighed in. Now it must be acknowledged President Donald J.
townhall.com
Don't think I ever said I voted for Biden/Harris. Maybe I did predict a Biden/Harris win.
If you really want this to be an accurate reflection of real life, you need to allow Roy, Celtic, khonelson, brimur and dogfood to vote as many times as they would like, and to submit multiple ballots on behalf of their pets and great-great-great grandparents. Perhaps also let them submit even more, after you have officially closed the poll, and published the results.
oh, and to be correct, shouldn’t it be Harris/Biden?
How many days can they vote after poll closes ?
Sorry, but the majority of people on this site are delusional. This will be a landslide, and There’s a good chance that Perdue loses. You’re right, I’m sick of the lies from FOX, Brietbart, and Infowars, which are all taking advantage of the poor smucks who read or watch this crap. You’ve all fallen for the dumbest con in history. Somewhere, Putin is laughing his ass off.
Is that the Royal we?
I always chuckle when some lefty criticizes FOX, given how overtly dishonest NBC, CNN, NYT and WaPo are. Even lefty scribes like Matt Taibbi, Glenn Greenwald and Andrew Sullivan have come to routinely criticize their liberal brethren of the pen as the result of their total and complete abdication of journalistic professionalism.
538 was among the most bullish on Trump in 2016 with a ~30% chance of him winning, much higher than most other sites. They had extensive discussion of the potential polling errors that could lead to inaccuracies in their model and the reasons the forecast was hazier than could be expected by other polls. There was some interesting stuff they had around how polling error correlations between states that could radically impact the outcome.
538 still predicted Hilllary to win, but it's inaccurate to lump them in with the others who forecast a Hillary landslide.
Trump’s getting slaughtered!!! You people are big- time Cult members.
Give me a list of who "counts" the votes, and I will give you the "winner".
I suppose that the in your face obvious tactic the media has played for years, amplified by 100 in the past six months - doesn't extend to polls. Ok.
Giving someone a 28.6% chance to win (to be exact) isn't being 'bullish' on their chances. This is Nate Silver and 538's biggest con is that he doesn't actually pick a winner but just gives 'percentages' of something happening and then can claim he was right either way. They are going to try to do the exact same thing this year as well.. They also hilariously had Hillary winning the EC vote 302-235 (it was almost the exact opposite at Trump 306-232) and Dems winning the Senate 51-49 (Republicans won 52-48).
You don't believe in putting percentages on a prediction?
He gave his base case forecast of Hillary winning and then showed what other outcomes were under his election prediction model. It only took a couple points total to shift the electoral outcome due to a few big states that all went the same way to Trump. 538 was really one of the few outlets claiming Trump had a path to victory based on possible polling error was in line with recent midterm elections and cross-state correlations.
No, I don't because it means that your 'prediction' is always right... If I say Georgia has a 50/50 percent chance to win every game this year then I will always be correct.
And yes, his base case forecast ended up being horribly wrong. He gave Trump a 23% or lower chance to win each of PA, MI and WI and not to mention his awful forecasts in FL and NC. It is also inaccurate to say that he was one of the 'few' outlets claiming Trump had a path to victory considering Trafalgar, Big Data Poll and Democracy Institute all predicted Trump to win.... Let me ask you this though, right now 538 is giving Trump a 11 in 100 chance to win while places like the the Economist, HuffPost, etc are even lower so if Trump wins again are you going to say that 538 was the most 'bullish' on his chances?
You appear not to understand predictive models on a fundamental level. They always use %’s because they don’t believe in one outcome, the model has a thousand different scenarios that have an approximate expectation of x with a confidence level of y. It’s literally the same concept as Vegas saying UGA is a pick em vs a 3 point fav vs a 3 TD fav. If you don’t get it, then don’t look at predictions I guess.
And I said 538 was among the most bullish relatively in 2016. Their data is much less bullish in 2020.
Problem is that the variables are so much more unknown Than football. particularly this year in terms of turnout and cohorts of people historically voting for one party or the other. If anything betting odds are a better indicator than these polls. No bias other than putting money where your mouth is.
