DNC Bump over
- Thread starter atlanta cock#
- Start date
Any rational thinking person is voting Trump. Without the cheat Trump wins easily.
Unfortunately, if the polls get too much in his favor the odds of another Butler incident go up as well.
- I think the bump for her occurred soon after Biden stepping down announcement.
- I think much of the early to mid-August Public polling advance was inflated / intentional bad polls
- One podcaster said he has never seen such a variance in public VS Private Polling data than the middle of August timeline.
- Comparing polling data at this point for 2016 / 2020 and 2024 would show Trump is better off between 7% and 9% compared to previous election September 1 polls. Thats not a true apple to apple comparison but does show he is in much better state now than earlier election cycles
- Nate Silver has switched his projection from earlier in week, which i think is interesting. Heard him on podcast either Monday or Tuesday giving slight advantage to Harris. He is a liberal pollster but overall fairly fair
- Fox and Rasmussen are similar, one has it close to even and the other has Trump plus 2%
- Trump's team and messaging, although criticized by MSM is much better this time than in past - Cotton and Vance are off the charts good cleaning up after Trump and staying on message.
- Republican Private polling has Trump up 2% to 3% in PA and Ga. Mark Halperin, Tim, Sean Spicer for reference - their podcast
- Trump needs to be seen many times with Gabbard and Shannahan in swing states. Kennedy might help some, but they will help much more. Attractive, accomplished females throwing shade on Harris is good for Trump
- Heard this yesterday, not sure if its 100% accurate but estimating that 60% of the undecided voters (still not sure if there are any really left) are male. Males are breaking 60% overall to Trump.
- I think numbers are embedded and almost stuck at this point. Very close to Biden / Trump before their Debate although Harris slightly better than Biden. I think Trump and his team would be ok with these current numbers sticking thru election day unchanged.
Here is Silver's explanation of today's data, which is easy to fault > his model is "basically subtracting a net 2 points from Harris for polls during/immediately after the DNC. So it treats the Emerson PA poll today showing a tie as Trump +2, and that gets a lot of weight as the only fully post-DNC/RFK PA poll."
this was a trash question. did you listen to the whole answer ?
and - to be clear - I think you need to drastically adjust your expectations.
you have been reasonable in the past - you're like a child who wanders into the middle of a movie right now.
Joe did her no favors today nixing Ukraine's use of missiles inside Russia; went against a strong public opinion that Ukraine should be able to defend themselves without being restrained.
On the other hand, Trump's idiots did him no favors at Arlington.
The number of screw ups that these two can pull by November is unlimited.
On the other hand, Trump's idiots did him no favors at Arlington.
The number of screw ups that these two can pull by November is unlimited.
I'm not following the Arlington comment. He was invited by Gold Star families. Who says no to that?
Also ....
US to give Zelensky ‘free hand’ on deep strikes into Russia – Moscow
Washington has effectively become a party to the conflict between Moscow and Kiev, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova has said
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The polls are a lagging indicator and I question their accuracy anyway. Trump has had a small lead on Polymarket for a couple of weeks. To be fair, it is essentially even odds (Trump 50%; Kamala 49%) but the betting market hasn’t shown a groundswell of support for Harris for a couple of weeks, unlike some of the recent polls.
Tom Cotton had a great response to the Arlington "issue" yesterday. He was a member of the honor guard and said only time he asked anyone to stop filming or taking pictures were at the request of the family. In this case, the families asked Trump to be there, so if the families didn't mind pictures then there is no issues. He said walk thru Arlington Cemetary any day, many folks are taking pictures. I have done so too on my trip. Cotton is one the cleanup person for Trump, and he seemed to do a good job with this one.
Cotton's comments as interpolated here do not speak to the controversy:
"Memorial services and ceremonies at Army National Military Cemeteries will not include partisan political activities."
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If the family invites Trump to the service and are ok with the pictures then what is the issue? If Trump puts it in an advertisement then pushback seems reasonably otherwise don’t see an issue. Another group that is getting fired should Trump win, right after the top brass at the National Archives. Many pink slips could be going out in Washington in January of 2025…..
To date, the National Archive nor the FBI have disclosed any information held by Trump in Florida that would warrant an FBI raid. If they do, I'll change my opinion, but at this point it appears overblown of which someone should be held accountable.
Same with the issue in Washington Cemetary. If Gold Star Families request, you to come to Cemetary for a ceremony and take some pictures, absolutely you go. Harris and Biden and their military poor planning contributed to the death of their family members. They have right to be angry and thus they are supporting Trump. Pentagon brass didn't like it being rubbed in their noses so they ran to the media.
If Trump hadn't had the fake electors and J6 he would win by a landslide. The fake electors are 100% on Trump and at some point he might be held accountable. J6 is a Trump / Pelosi deal and both should be held accountable. The fake electors is what galls me, there was most likely some fraud beyond acceptable levels, but if you can't prove it you have to accept your loss and move on. You don't create a constitutional crisis without all your ducks in a row and he didn't have it. I'm fairly sure that is exactly what Pense told Trump, he should have taken his advice.
So there you go, as objective as i can be about some of the Trump issues / items. He certainly has some, but not the Cemetary one and most likely not the Archive one.
fair enough! h/t with respect to all that. Have a delightful Labor Day weekend and enjoy the game. Go Dawgs!
They're just frustrated. Their side just installed the worst duo in history and they know it. The DNC bounce has ended. Labor Day is upon us and the campaign begins in earnest next week. Their side is already behind and it's going to get worse and they know it.
It's like a football or basketball game. Your team is down 20 with 90 seconds to go.
Tom Cotton is a great Senator for us. Liberals dislike him for his conservative philosophy and hate him for his military background.
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