do everything right. That is scary as hayul, folks. Dammit.
Dr Brix stated we could reach 100K > 200K dead EVEN IF we
- Thread starter RoyDawgMercer
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Dawgvent says that's not true so I am no longer alarmed.
Yep. We're starting to see why delaying restrictions a few weeks has disproportionate consequences.
At this point I've decided nobody has a damn clue...they're all guessing. Fauci downplayed this virus in the beginning.
Everyone is learning as they go. They'll have a new guess tomorrow. I actually think the constant revisions of their guesses are doing more harm than good. Just say you don't know.
Everyone is learning as they go. They'll have a new guess tomorrow. I actually think the constant revisions of their guesses are doing more harm than good. Just say you don't know.
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"Could" or it " could" have peaked? Or I "could" have a menage with Jennifer Aniston and Wonder Woman
And you are wrong, again. This time about the accuracy of what you yourself posted. And I quote...
"Fauci said today it will be a success if only 200k Americans die from the Rona, so...."
Not only did Fauci not say that, at all, but you completely omitted the lower number.
Over a 7 day period last week, the number jumped 20x in the US. It is now doubling about every 3-4 days. It was doubling every 2 days. A 4 day doubling on exponential growth means the total would double more than 3x in 2 weeks. That's infected not dead.
That means we will be well north of 1.2 million infected in 2 weeks. Here's how the math works.
Right now, there are > 150k in the US
150,000 x2 = 300 (4 days from now)
300,000 x2 = 600 (8 days from now)
600,000 x2 = 1,200,000 (12 days from now)
And that's 2,400,000 in 16 days.
Current fatality rate is 1.8%. That means in 16 days we will 43,000 dead in 16 days. And you would double that in 4 days. So yeah....having 100k dead in 20 days and 200k dead before the end of the month of April isn't hard math to figure out. And there are models which are much, much worse.
In reality...the # of new cases will explode starting late this week as the new test kits and capacity comes online. Does that mean the death rate will explode? No.
The death rate will explode when the hospital systems of NYC, New Orleans, Detroit, Chicago and other cities are overrun and the ability to save borderline cases collapses.
Right now an awful lot is riding on a viral cocktail that may or may not work.
See that for what it is. Cover for her boss, whose posterior she so blatantly kisses every time she speaks. If it's less than 100,000, then guess who is a hero? Expectations set,
I think you better lower your sights for wenenz. Those two a just a bit out of your league.
At some point the doubling stops and the math starts stretching out and leveling off and those top numbers are unlikely to materialize. The question is when and how fast?
He said that be he didnt say that. The question was proposed to him what's the worst case scenario. He said the doomsday prediction worste caste scenario is 100 to 200K. He said he doesn't think it will be that bad because of the social distance and extreme measures people are doing right now
Or maybe the results of social distancing and other measures haven’t shown up yet in the numbers, and we are still cycling through cases where people were infected before they started changing their lifestyle. We all in knew that it would get worse before it gets better but it wouldn’t surprise me if we are closer to the peak than the talking heads would have you believe.
Bad reporting here. Answer specifically was to a scenario where we carried on business as usual. Measures we have used is projected to cut that rate by at least 7x. Not great by any means but the scare tactics are not healthy for our elderly to worry about like this.
Also they have said the big numbers were 3 cycles this one and next fall and then next winter. But Fauchi says everyday we don’t know how it will react. We know we have more infected because we aren’t testing enough.
I’m curious, are NYC subways still operating? I’m blown away by how things have just exploded in that state even after everyone was warned. If I was mayor, I would shut the subways down. It would suck for a lot of people but those things are enclosed contagion death traps.
No kidding, this amazed me as well. Historic stupidity in that city and state.
Well...it's hard to keep doubling on large numbers. That's true. That's why we're only jumping every 4 days instead of 2 days. BUT...it's also hard to increase the count accurately when you don't have enough tests coming online. And when there's a 4 day lag on test results.
When we bring on the additional testing capacity this week that's being projected I suspect the total # of cases will go up much more than 1.2m in 12 days.
We'll see.
We'll add ~40k today by midnight. We added ~20k on Friday and Saturday. And the big bump in testing capacity hasn't hit yet.
As an aside some data released in Charleston today showing that of the 5085 tests in the state...18% have come back positive. I find this interesting in that it is the first data I have seen showing the number of negative tests rather than just the bad news. Have to assume that you can extrapolate this ratio nationally as well. Would like to see more numbers
Stay safe folks.
I don't know that I would put any faith in the mortality rate...
To me the way to calculate it would be deaths over deaths + recovered, not deaths over total cases. Even then, with actual cases being much higher (is it 2x? 10x?) than reported due to testing, we really have no idea.
And we have been adding ~20k cases per day - right now at 16k for today with about 3 hrs left in today's numbers.
You really love hyperbole. This thread needs to be nuked.
I severely detest how political this disease has become
That's the one thing you literally can't say. You can't send people into more of a tailspin and create more panic.
That’s not true. The doomsday was1.2 million. 100k-200k IS the prediction with continued efforts
Again, not true. He said estimates were 100 to 200K but that was just his estimate doomsday prediction. He never said he expects it. He went as far to say hes seen improvement
We are seeing that this thing is a virus -that despite out best intentions will spread. And as a result a relatively small number of people will die as a result.
Dr. Brix is not just some talking head. They've seen the hard numbers. Like she Sid they're accounting for "everything being done." Kinda hard to argue with that statement.
@JaxDawg07
200,000 is not a "small number" relative or otherwise. For perspective we "only" lost 56,000 in Vietnam. Projected totals are far, far, ahead of the 8,000 lost in a 20 year war on terrorism. U.S. lost 400,000 in WWII so it could be 50% that number in a matter of months. Staggering losses from this virus. I'm hoping it's way less than any of the projections but the calls are based upon factual data.
.0004 of us (entire population) will die directly or indirectly from this virus. Doomsday (worst possible) scenario.
For perspective, 2,800,000 Americans die every year. 100,000-200,000 is still a lot of people. Hopefully the numbers don't get that high, who knows at this point.
Incorrect...he just said yesterday, 100,000-200,000 as is, not worse case. He then went on to say it is a moving target and don't hold anyone to these predictions so closely. If you want to hear him say this himself, go to the 4:45'ish mark of this video of yesterday's interview with Jake Tapper.
(Source used is for video purpose only as it is a real time, real word presentation of Dr. Fauci's words, nothing more, nothing less.)
Not sure why it won't let me embed this video. Anyway...it is there for all to hear if they will look up the video and hear him say his words. Stay safe!
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Those are confirmed cases. The actual number of infected is in the 10s of millions. The reason the confirmed cases are sky rocketing is we are able to test more samples daily. Everyone knew the number of confirmed cases would rise exponentially as we tested more. That number is near useless. And it’s being used to spread fear. We don’t know if the cases are old, resolved, acute, mild, serious?Calculating a mortality rate based on confirmed cases is artificially elevating the mortality rate. Just because the testing numbers are doubling doesn’t indicate anything about the disease spread nor any impact on mortality. 200k aren’t going to die let alone by April’s end.
Hospitals aren’t being overrun. Gov Cuomo got caught yesterday admitting he is sitting on vents because he doesn’t need them. We won’t be choosing who to save in this country. We have capacity beyond capacity.
