During one of the pressers the US Surgeon General stated that only 10% of those tested so far tested positive.
Dr Brix stated we could reach 100K > 200K dead EVEN IF we
- Thread starter RoyDawgMercer
- Start date
During one of the pressers the US Surgeon General stated that only 10% of those tested so far tested positive.
Come on, man. You are conflating things that don’t make sense for dramatic effect. Last year the flu killed 34,000 people in the U.S. and the year before it killed 61,000 per CDC estimates. That’s nearly 100,000 people in 24 months, but people don’t run around every year making histrionic comparisons of flu deaths vs WWII and 9/11.
Covid is a serious crisis, clearly much worse of a burden on our health system than the flu. But hysteria and exaggerated comparisons only make people either more resistant to what needs to be done or paralyzed with fear. Neither is helpful.
What does that mean? Absolutely NOTHING. Static models don't work, never will, to many variables. Now if you simply want panic and drama, carry on, otherwise, this is about as accurate as the early calculations that said we'd have millions dead, or the polls that said, President Hillary Clinton.
Exactly as they are meant too...the good news is they're meaningless
Comparing that to war is, well, very strange.
To call the loss "staggering" is just a gross overstatement.
The thing is you have zero idea what they mean. None. I doubt Dr. Brix is putting stuff out there just to scare folks. That would be idiotic as the WH wants to claim success on prior statements v admitting they've been wrong. You're take is meaningless.
I agree on the lack of testing. That is freaking criminal. We had something like 2600 cases in GA and had only done 12,000 some odd tests a day or two back. Not knowing the scope and how it's affecting various subgroups other than those who are so sick they HAVE to be tested is simply ridiculous and pathetic. We are missing a lot of information that we need.to make informed decisions.
Exactly, and even though nobody wants their demise accelerated, a good portion of the 100-200K that die with covid 19 present would likely have been in the 2.8 number regardless. At the end of the yr, if we are at 3 mil total deaths and 200K covid 19 deaths, that will tell us one thing. If we are at 2,800,010 total deaths with 200K deaths with covid 19 present, it will tell us a different story.
Knowledge is power. It illustrates the importance of everyone acting in a responsible way. Facts v known facts is neither hysteria, conflating, nor exaggerateing in any way. Merely pointing out the comparative numbers v historical events is enlightening for comparison. Deaths of 100,000 deaths is 40,000 more v flue; or it could be 160,000 more. That's the reality from Dr. Brix. I hope the death total is way less than flu.
They've got a pretty good damn clue that it's transmitted person to person now. He did not know that when he downplayed it. It was very early and the Chinese were denying personal transmission. We don't rely on China's info anymore. We got first row chairs for this now.
So much for no political threads. This is as political as it gets.
He's already a hero. That would make him legendary.
Fauci said same the day before, yet IDIOTS everywhere won't HEED them,as evidenced all over parks,beaches,etc.,to the point where a mayor in Ky,after seeing large #s of his constituents crowded into a park,said,"Listen up DIP$HITS.............." and proceeded to chew them a new one. Only takes ONE death ,as long as it's ONE of THEIRS, for people who infected a loved one, to FINALLY get SOME PEOPLE'S ATTENTION.-- F'n FOOLS.
Last edited:
Sort of. You also have to control for the fact that deaths are down overall due to people mainly hanging out at home.
Well it’s a historically stupid city and state so..... their actions fit right in with their past.
We can have an idea of the denominator all it takes is a little digging and some simple math and logic.
Iceland which had their first positive test on 2/28 has as of yesterday tested 16,443 people. The population of Iceland is 364,000. So they have tested 4.5% of their total population. This is the highest number of tested as a ratio of a population in the world by about 5 times South Koreas ratio. They have found 1086 positives so far. They are also doing substantial random testing of people not just testing suspected cases. So far around half the people that have been found positive have no symptoms. Some of those asympomatic will develop symptoms later but how many? They have 30 people in the hospital and 10 in intensive care with 2 deaths.
So now let's do some math
1086 confirmed cases out of 364,000 population is 0.3% of the countries population. 0.3% of the US's 320,000,000 population would 953,846 people. Since they obviously haven't found all cases since they are still finding cases daily then that number is too low. Let's keep figuring. Another way to look at it, would that of the people that Iceland has tested 7% (1086/16443) have been positive. That would be over 21 million infected if we applied that ratio to the US! That number would be likely be too high as it would contain people who got tested because they felt ill so a somewhat self selecting population. So on we go with more figuring. They break their testing down by the tests done by their health institute and by a private company that is doing a study. The rate of positives for the health institute is 13% of tests. The rate of positives for Decode Genetics (the private company doing a study) is 0.8% (71/8,694). That appears to be on relatively random sample of people. That number 0.8% seems like the best current estimate in the entire world for the ratio of infected for a given population with a infection start date of 2/28. That would be 2,613,000 infected in America but our first infection was a month earlier so that ratio is likely higher for us. Iceland also implemented social distancing policies before most of the US. Do your own analysis https://www.covid.is/data if you don't believe me.
While it is true that we have no idea what the total number of infected is, it is likely already in the 7 figures in the US and 8 figures worldwide.
Extra credit
Go look at https://www.euromomo.eu/index.html and draw your own conclusions and then check back late this week to see if that conclusion changes when they update for this week.
.
Last edited:
Imagine if you knew the real numbers out of China.
Please stay scared as hell but quit trying to scare other people. You continually try to scare the hell out of people and you have no ****ing clue what you are talking about. You send miss information to make your hysteria look normal.
Please stay scared as hell but quit trying to scare other people. You continually try to scare the hell out of people and you have no ****ing clue what you are talking about. You send miss information to make your hysteria look normal.
Yeah all my friends are alive so I don't care.
smartass comment because that is basically what one venter responded to me.
I'm not going to touch the political stuff as it isn't pertinent.
As you eloquently stated many folks have covid 19 with practically no symptoms. Millions. Probably 10s of millions. You are in charge. What do you do? I'll help you. It's past containment. Way past. There was never a chance to contain a respiratory virus. Unless you do it at the point of a gun, and I'm not sure that worked in China.
Yes there are some very sick people, and some have died, and more will. Some will get sick in the future, and more will die. We are at the mountain top. It's the end of flu season. Respiratory viruses don't fare well in the heat. Sure it can continue to spread in the summer, but it will be much slower. Hospitalizations and deaths will decline as the temperature rises. Whatever remains in the summer will be managed with our resources. Herd immunity will begin to play roll by fall. Total death numbers will not be any worse than a moderate flu season if that high. Unfortunately it is what it is, and we are doing all we can. We will win more than we lose. Sadly people do die, and we do all that we can after that it is out of our hands. Outside of an effective antiviral or vaccine we are doing all we can.
Have hope not fear.
I'm calling your BS
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...stockpile-of-thousands-of-unused-ventilators/
Getting on TV everyday and complaining he doesn't have the supplies when he does. It's political grandstanding, and causing a panic and fear when we need it the least. Medically we got this. Hospitals are fine. We have capacity and vents everywhere, and hospitals are working with each other and other medical facilities to move patients to make room if needed. Americans truly shines when the pressure is on.
Watch this. It will make you feel better. The American medical system is 3rd Army.
Now you know how I feel.
It is a high number. These are peoples lives. Not a high percentage - yes, but losing >100K people is a lot.
Last edited:
Closing the subway here is really not an option. It would cripple the health care system. People would not be able to get to work. We are already struggling keeping up with providers as is. The subways are empty as only the people that have to use it do. That isn't the problem.
The mayor gambled the wrong way with the schools. It was another one of these impossible decisions. Close the schools and there are a lot of kids who won't get a meal, but by keeping it open he gave the virus more energy to spread.
Could you imagine if POTUS not gone against the grain and not ordered the ban on China travel on Jan. 27? It would have been much much worse. Also, the Chinese New Year parade in Manhattan at the end of Feb. was a horrible move. Tough to get everything right in this situation.
Bullshit. You are not trying to distribute knowledge, you are trying to spread fear and show how smart you are.
wait wait, didn’t you hear? Fauci pulled the fire alarm and we Re all supposed to run for our lives. This country is acting like it got a pre-virus lobotomy
Well, I am genius. But the facts are actual. I only stated exactly the truth. If you can’t handle it the problem is yours.
Ain’t that the truth!!! Said two weeks ago there was no way Italy should ever have greater morbidity numbers v China. Maybe one day we’ll know the truth.
Stating that between 100k and 200k people will die is not a fact, it’s an estimate and not a very precise one.
Where did I say anything about an exact number? I quoted Birx directly. If you have an issue with what I wrote write to her.
Ha! Something is going on with ATT internet. It’s sucks and causes me to post things twice.
An estimate is not a fact. If 112,487 people had died, that would be a fact. Saying that between 100k and 200k people will die is a guess. “Facts” and “Guesses” are two different things.
I was chastised by another poster in this in a different thread .
The reality of this thing is starting to really set in and yet some folks are still in denial .
