Feel free to call me out, bump in the future. Will see how I did....
Fears of "Revenge" or "end of democracy"
Totally unfounded. Truth will bear out that lawfare and other attempts to remove Trump were more of a threat to democracy. He isn't going to waste his time going after political enemies. "The enemy from within".....gonna use the Military on US Citizens. Absolutely ridiculous. Trump will continue to piss people off with rhetoric, offend, outrage, etc, etc. That's who he is. Sometimes intentional and effectively in terms of angling for something. Sometimes not. But democracy was never in trouble when he got elected. He isn't Hitler. He's not a facist (although most who say that don't know what it means).
Abortion
Nothing happens here. No abortion ban. Literallly, nothing. Everything stays the same.
Inflation / Economy / Spending
The rate of inflation will continue to ride in the low 2% range. But anyone who thinks Trump can magically bring prices down to where they were doesn't know how sticky things like rents are. He will be effective in keeping energy prices low because his policy will maximize domestic oil production and remove red tape so energy supply breaks records by a very large margin. That will help with other items as well. Furthermore, removing regulations will increase production and improve the supply chain. Rents are going to increase because the fed effectively put a two year pause on new apartment construction by making the cost of capital so high that developers haven't been able to capitalize projects the last 24 months. Housing prices won't go down, but the cost to own housing should as interest rates come down.
One of the reasons mortgage rates will come down (in addition to the fed) is that Trump will engage a team of experienced CEO's (not just Elon) to get to work on making government more efficient. This will give confidence to markets that the US fiscal situation long-term will improve, notwithstanding tax cuts. That will give investors more confidence to buy treasuries at lower yields, bringing mortgage rates lower. The push to achieve savings in government spending will cost jobs in the early years, and the left will scream bloody murder. But long-term it is a private sector-like solution to a major problem, and it will lead to outsized growth in the future.
It doesn't take an economic PHD to predict that when you loosen government regulation on companies, M&A activity, etc.....growth will follow. Wall Street understands this. And especially with smaller businesses. The Russell 2000 is up 10% this week. That is an absolutely huge move signalling the expectation that not just the largest companies will prosper in Trump's economy....smaller businesses will as well. Trump isn't going to Tarriff anyone huge amounts. But he absolutely will threaten it in order to negotiate a better deal with our foreign trade partners. An America first policy that gives two shits about being popular with Europeans / Chinese / Mexicans will (shocker) lead to a good economic outcome for Americans.
Bottom line - it won't show up immediately, but by the end of his term and into his successor's term, Trump policy will have led to a great outcome economically for Americans across all racial and wealth demos. It isn't Trump per se, it is how capitalism and an emphasis on the private sector works. His policy is simple: Let it.
Foreign Wars
Trump uses financial leverage on Iran to bring peace in the Middle East, as he did the first time. This will be popular....pretty universally popular domestically. I don't see where the argument could be against this. Iran will be held in check because they know Trump would not be afraid to straight-up assasinate their leaders. Amazing how that works, especially when your enemies know you don't give a shit what the US media thinks about it. Remember how the media said "Trump is gonna start a war with Iran" when he assasinated their general? Wrong - he prevented one, and kept them in check against our only ally in the middle East - Israel.
Trump uses financial and other leverage on Putin / Zalensky to bring peace in Europe. This will be unpopular on the left. There will be those that say whatever outcome was negotiated "handed Putin victory" and that he is now more likely to attack NATO. I frankly think that is bullshit. Bottom line is that a placated Putin creates a safer world. And to the extent Trump does provide Putin with a way to save face and exit the war....it will be countered with private and real threats that he will destroy Putin if he attacks NATO. This is such a bloody war, and it needs to end.