Year 4
The dust is finally almost completely settled on the off-season roster changes in college basketball. The portal is almost completely done (Desmond Claude appears to be the only big fish still out there) and the NBA draft players have either officially stayed in the draft or gone back to college, so let’s take a preview at Year 4 under Mike White and what it means for us (UGA basketball program).
Projections for next year
Jon Rothstein has his annual top 45 teams that he continually updates almost daily as teams make moves. He seems pretty level headed and is committed to the sport as anybody. Here are his top 45 teams for next year:
https://www.fanduel.com/research/jo...ason-edition-rankings-mens-college-basketball
Now, these are just projections but we are not currently in the top 45 (we have been in the top 45 this offseason but have recently gotten bumped; so we are close). He does have 12 SEC teams in the top 45. This means that we are PROJECTED to at least finish 13th. Now this is just a projection but if it were to hold out, here is how we would have finished each SEC season under Mike White:
Year 1: 11th
Year 2: 11th
Year 3: 11th
Year 4 : 13th (PROJECTED)
Comparing to the SEC coaching class of 2022
Mike White was hired with 5 other SEC coaches in 2022
Here is how they have done in the last three years, since they were hired:
Mizzou Dennis Gates - 2 NCAA tourneys as a #6 seed and #7 seed
Miss St Chris Jans - 3 NCAA tourneys as #11 seed, #8 seed, and as a #8 seed
Fla Todd Golden - 2 NCAA tourneys as # 7 seed and a #1 seed (national champion)
SC Lamont Paris - 1 NCAA tourney as a #6 seed, finished season in top 25
Mike White - 1 NCAA tourney as a #9 seed
LSU - Matt McMahon - 0 NCAA tourneys, has battled some NCAA restrictions from prior regime
New Comers
Vanderbilt’s Mark Byington was hired late last year and built an entirely new roster and finished with the same SEC record as us and as a #10 seed in the NCAA tourney on a perceived NIL budget to be smaller than ours. Texas A&M’s Bucky McMillan was hired late this year and has an NIL budget believed to be very similar to ours and their team is projected as #35 in Rothstein’s list.
Final Analysis
Is Mike White a great guy? Absolutely. Has our floor been raised with him here? One could argue yes, for sure. But, in his tenure, NIL finally came into play for us and we should be around the top 50 every year because we are in the SEC and just don’t have to compete with mid majors anymore because of cash. So NIL has raised our floor as much as anything. For comparison’s sake, our best finish in the SEC under Crean…..10th.
So we eventually have to make a decision on Mike White. This will be year 4 and we have seen a good bit. We also saw his tenure at Fla. We now know what they were before him and after him. We also have precedent of what other schools have done. Before Oats, Bama fired Avery Johnson with numbers very similar to White. As did Miss State with Ben Howland. As did Mizzou with Cuonzo Martin. Texas just fired Terry and his record was way better. The buyout for White after this year is 3.9 million, which feels like peanuts with the NIL money being spent.
I’m excited to watch this team this upcoming year. We have some pieces that could be fun to watch. But if the projections hold true, I believe it is time to have a real conversation about where we are and where we are going. We have a history of holding on to just okay for way too long.
The dust is finally almost completely settled on the off-season roster changes in college basketball. The portal is almost completely done (Desmond Claude appears to be the only big fish still out there) and the NBA draft players have either officially stayed in the draft or gone back to college, so let’s take a preview at Year 4 under Mike White and what it means for us (UGA basketball program).
Projections for next year
Jon Rothstein has his annual top 45 teams that he continually updates almost daily as teams make moves. He seems pretty level headed and is committed to the sport as anybody. Here are his top 45 teams for next year:
https://www.fanduel.com/research/jo...ason-edition-rankings-mens-college-basketball
Now, these are just projections but we are not currently in the top 45 (we have been in the top 45 this offseason but have recently gotten bumped; so we are close). He does have 12 SEC teams in the top 45. This means that we are PROJECTED to at least finish 13th. Now this is just a projection but if it were to hold out, here is how we would have finished each SEC season under Mike White:
Year 1: 11th
Year 2: 11th
Year 3: 11th
Year 4 : 13th (PROJECTED)
Comparing to the SEC coaching class of 2022
Mike White was hired with 5 other SEC coaches in 2022
Here is how they have done in the last three years, since they were hired:
Mizzou Dennis Gates - 2 NCAA tourneys as a #6 seed and #7 seed
Miss St Chris Jans - 3 NCAA tourneys as #11 seed, #8 seed, and as a #8 seed
Fla Todd Golden - 2 NCAA tourneys as # 7 seed and a #1 seed (national champion)
SC Lamont Paris - 1 NCAA tourney as a #6 seed, finished season in top 25
Mike White - 1 NCAA tourney as a #9 seed
LSU - Matt McMahon - 0 NCAA tourneys, has battled some NCAA restrictions from prior regime
New Comers
Vanderbilt’s Mark Byington was hired late last year and built an entirely new roster and finished with the same SEC record as us and as a #10 seed in the NCAA tourney on a perceived NIL budget to be smaller than ours. Texas A&M’s Bucky McMillan was hired late this year and has an NIL budget believed to be very similar to ours and their team is projected as #35 in Rothstein’s list.
Final Analysis
Is Mike White a great guy? Absolutely. Has our floor been raised with him here? One could argue yes, for sure. But, in his tenure, NIL finally came into play for us and we should be around the top 50 every year because we are in the SEC and just don’t have to compete with mid majors anymore because of cash. So NIL has raised our floor as much as anything. For comparison’s sake, our best finish in the SEC under Crean…..10th.
So we eventually have to make a decision on Mike White. This will be year 4 and we have seen a good bit. We also saw his tenure at Fla. We now know what they were before him and after him. We also have precedent of what other schools have done. Before Oats, Bama fired Avery Johnson with numbers very similar to White. As did Miss State with Ben Howland. As did Mizzou with Cuonzo Martin. Texas just fired Terry and his record was way better. The buyout for White after this year is 3.9 million, which feels like peanuts with the NIL money being spent.
I’m excited to watch this team this upcoming year. We have some pieces that could be fun to watch. But if the projections hold true, I believe it is time to have a real conversation about where we are and where we are going. We have a history of holding on to just okay for way too long.
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