NonDawg Word is ANGC making plans to

[FlatsWaterDawg]

 

[ugafish]

All viruses have a latent period in which the patient is infectious but has not yet had symptoms. The period is usually around 10-14 days. Many a virus has caused worldwide epidemic but mutates to a form that is less virulent. Most likely it will play itself out. Many flu strains have been more lethal over this time period. I don't mean to downplay this but hysteria is premature if not altogether misplaced,at least to this point.

I am talking about after the latent period. There are infected people who don’t show any signs beyond very minor side effects, but then pass it onto an older person who gets knocked out. I am not sure that is the case with the flu strains.

 

[DENTDOG]

I am talking about after the latent period. There are infected people who don’t show any signs beyond very minor side effects, but then pass it onto an older person who gets knocked out. I am not sure that is the case with the flu strains.

Actually it's very much so. A person with the flu virus is more contagious during the latent period. Although the latent period for flu is much shorter, after symptoms appear the virulence decreases daily for around 3-5 days.

 

[911DAWG]

I am not holding my breath! 65

 

[kdsdawg]

I said it’s well within your rights to spout nonsense, so by all means, continue.

it is not nonsense when we have no idea how many cases there are out there. For instance, my best friend went to Vegas three weeks ago. Flew from Tallahassee. There were a few Asians on there. He spent the week gambling around tables with people from all over the country. He came home with the flu. He is 100% well now. Age 57. This is literally happening all over the country and has been from the beginning. Heck, the co founder of Apple and his wife are both sick. They flew back from China in early January. Think how many people they were around. There are most likely thousands of people with it and they don't know it.

 

[ARealMunson]

Responding to both your posts...

I strongly suspect schools have been shut down because they *do* think the virus is a threat to the young. That seems like a reasonable concern since apparently most respiratory viruses like this do affect the young, but so far this one is curiously almost completely sparing younger populations.

Not only have there been zero fatalities for 9 and under in the world, the overall infection rate is far lower for the young (to the extent it has been captured accurately for any population).

A Journal of American Medical Association study on the first 72,314 cases in China found this (read this carefully - it is eye-popping IMO):

"Most case patients were 30 to 79 years of age (87%), 1% were aged 9 years or younger, 1% were aged 10 to 19 years, and 3% were age 80 years or older."

Only *two percent* of all COVID-19 cases in the first 72,314 cases were among 19 and younger (the school-age population). Among that group, almost no fatalities and confirmed zero fatalities in 9 and under.

So does it actually make sense to cancel school when not only are children not suffering fatalities but are almost not getting the virus at all based on research done to this point?

When you close schools, you definitively incur a societal cost on the other hand. On a macro scale, it is going to cause economic disruption - some economists say it almost guarantees recession. It is also going to increase fear-based decision-making with all its hidden costs. On a micro scale, it is going to inflict economic pain on families that now have to be care-giver to children suddenly at home on an unplanned-basis.

Healthy economies and economically-healthy families are also more physically healthy. There will almost certainly be other adverse health outcomes in some ways from choosing this level of societal and economic disruption.

Is it justified to still do that in light of growing research? Maybe it is. However, the decisions are not as clear-cut as it seems. Lots of gray areas and the folks making these decisions are surrounded by people pulling them different directions, unfairly criticizing them, or sometimes just outright engaged in panic.

You clearly know about school systems and their closings affecting supply chains / economies but I will say this.

1. Right now the closing decisions are being made on a school system by school system (or school by school if private) basis (as far as I know). Impossible to say that all are on the exact page as far as reason to cancel.

2. I’m sure it’s not as clear as you suggest ie schools are closing for a multitude of reasons.

3. Even if their motivation is in the wrong place, if it means less carriers I think that’s worth the economic hit.

4. Numbers are pretty absolute in terms of not getting infected but when it comes to kids I personally think money shouldn’t even come into the picture if there’s a preventative measure to keep them safe from even an outside threat. Ie some things are greater than money.

5. You seemed to ignore my second post.

6. This is related but not sure I can articulate the tie in at the moment on my cell waiting to walk into a meeting but ajc reporting that Singapore closed schools well before the point that Washington is at AND they had much more testing than we do (ie the cases in Washington are probably higher than the number of cases that caused Singapore to close schools). Are they the gold standard? Probably not. Is it proof that America is not totally just freaking out compared to other countries? Yes.

 

[Nooga Dawg]

You infecting your own parent or grand parent could be as simple as hanging out with them for dinner, leaving with a hug, a hand shake. I find it disturbing you don’t appear to GAS about them, but it doesn’t affect me, so I am not really bothered by your careless defiance.

You just can't let it go can you? - very typical of the self righteous, I know better than you crowd.
So if your not really bothered - then drop it - but your just not capable of that are you?
How I live my life, and how I interact with my family is absolutely no business of yours.
My grandmother would tell you to stay the hell out of her life - we will worry about ours, you worry about yours.

 

[ARealMunson]

The world’s leading health official implored international leaders to unleash the full power of their governments to combat the new coronavirus outbreak.

“This is not a drill,” said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the World Health Organization. “This is not a time for excuses. This is a time for pulling out all the stops.”

 

[PGAMBR]

That’s Diet Cola mister!

Damn the diet cola!! We all know what it is!! I mean come on, they put an orange peel in the American Craft Beer!!! Cough Blue Moon Cough!!

 

[RoyDawgMercer]

This is what I believe will be to proven to be true that the death rate is quite low because this thing is quite honestly being mostly undiagnosed

Doubting this take because “common colds” do not generate consistent death rates as Covid-19 which is why the Chinese doc in Wuhan noticed it. It even killed him! Guy was a hero. Won’t know the actual numbers for a while but the morbidity has been pretty consistent to date.

 

[RoyDawgMercer]

For those that are saying "it's just the flu" here is why that is not helpful in my opinion:

- It is a new disease, that we don't know a lot about. We don't know the incubation period, we don't know how long you can pass it on after the symptoms are gone. We don't know if it can be spread airborne. So, the newness of it is causing a lot of the anxiety.

- Because it is new, people don't have immunity to it, and a vaccine and other drugs to prevent it, or lessen it, aren't available.

- We don't know the mortality rate, but thus far seems to be higher than the flu. That said, I suspect many of your were shocked like I was to learn how many people die from the flu each year. I had no idea. My guess is that we don't have any idea how many people have had it, but I'd bet it's twice what has been reported, which means the mortality rate is half what is being reported.

These are things we just don't know, and that is why everyone is somewhat anxious, IMO.

It could also mean twice as many have died from Covid19, too. It’s a Ying and a Yang.

 

[ugafish]

You just can't let it go can you? - very typical of the self righteous, I know better than you crowd.
So if your not really bothered - then drop it - but your just not capable of that are you?
How I live my life, and how I interact with my family is absolutely no business of yours.
My grandmother would tell you to stay the hell out of her life - we will worry about ours, you worry about yours.

Using your logic, you are claiming you are bothered and self righteous because you havent dropped it.

Its perfectly okay for you to do as you choose, its okay for me to explain to you the risk involved,and its okay for you to put your head in the sand and ignore common sense.

I bet your grandmother is gonna be pissed if you get her deathly ill, but you clearly dont GAS because "my freedom".

 

[borodawg]

@BigDaddyDawgBreath

While the mortality and morbidity rates for most of the population will almost certainly appear very low, the massive #s of people who will contract and carry the virus—compared to the # of those who would get either influenza covered by their vaccine (or viral pneumonia)— will be the difference.

But I agree governments, organizations and individuals must guard against disproportionate overreactions that will cascade other equally dangerous effects.

Human behavior— especially group behavior stoked by fear is very hard to predict.

And it’s much easier to retrospectively live with overreaction than it is under reaction.

 

[RoyDawgMercer]

@BigDaddyDawgBreath

While the mortality and morbidity rates for most of the population will almost certainly appear very low, the massive #s of people who will contract and carry the virus—compared to the # of those who would get either influenza covered by their vaccine (or viral pneumonia)— will be the difference.

But I agree governments, organizations and individuals must guard against disproportionate overreactions that will cascade other equally dangerous effects.

Human behavior— especially group behavior stoked by fear is very hard to predict.

And it’s much easier to retrospectively live with overreaction than it is under reaction.

I'd much rather overreact now and plead Mia Culpa later than under react and hear the Last Rights. But that's just moi.

 

[ugafish]

I'd much rather overreact now and plead Mia Culpa later than under react and hear the Last Rights. But that's just moi.

As Liz Spect says in this 30 post exercise...

"Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency."

 

[ugafish]

 

[BigDaddyDawgBreath]

@BigDaddyDawgBreath

While the mortality and morbidity rates for most of the population will almost certainly appear very low, the massive #s of people who will contract and carry the virus—compared to the # of those who would get either influenza covered by their vaccine (or viral pneumonia)— will be the difference.

But I agree governments, organizations and individuals must guard against disproportionate overreactions that will cascade other equally dangerous effects.

Human behavior— especially group behavior stoked by fear is very hard to predict.

And it’s much easier to retrospectively live with overreaction than it is under reaction.

Agree on all points.

Your last point is the one that resonates most with me, and explains many of the decisions we see IMO. People making decisions now would rather look back and say they "did everything". I understand that. Liability culture encourages that. It is sometimes the right call.

However, in this situation, there are real and painful costs down the path of "doing everything". If the facts support "doing everything" then let's get about it smartly, but what if they do not?

 

[Nooga Dawg]

Using your logic, you are claiming you are bothered and self righteous because you havent dropped it.

Its perfectly okay for you to do as you choose, its okay for me to explain to you the risk involved,and its okay for you to put your head in the sand and ignore common sense.

I bet your grandmother is gonna be pissed if you get her deathly ill, but you clearly dont GAS because "my freedom".

Lighten up sunshine - move on and accept there are people that you can’t change or bully into believing what ever you believe.
My grandmother is tougher than a pine knot - she will be just fine.

 

[so_comfort1]

Those are very conservative numbers. The current doubling time looks to be closer to 4 days than 7-10, and Italy is reporting higher hospitalization and ICU/vent rates.

I hope the numbers they are using are more accurate than what I've gathered.

BTW: The US only has about 100,000 ICU beds across the country that typically run at ~70% capacity leaving 30,000 empty beds. How are we going to fit 1.9 million ICU admissions even when adjusted for a period of time?

 

[ugafish]

Lighten up sunshine - move on and accept there are people that you can’t change or bully into believing what ever you believe.
My grandmother is tougher than a pine knot - she will be just fine.

Pneumonia kills tough people everyday, not that you care.

 

[ugafish]

Those are very conservative numbers. The current doubling time looks to be closer to 4 days than 7-10, and Italy is reporting higher hospitalization and ICU/vent rates.

I hope the numbers they are using are more accurate than what I've gathered.

BTW: The US only has about 100,000 ICU beds across the country that typically run at ~70% capacity leaving 30,000 empty beds. How are we going to fit 1.9 million ICU admissions even when adjusted for a period of time?

Good question. Those numbers are nightmarish. Our healthcare system would crumble if this goes in the direction it’s trending.

 

[so_comfort1]

 

[ugafish]

View embedded media

I imagine all the “it’s just the flu” people mocking the concerned people is about to stop.

 

[Nooga Dawg]

Pneumonia kills tough people everyday, not that you care.

Good lord man - let it go
Not everyone has to agree with you
What is your obsession with why I don’t give a crap about this?
Move on - go save a puppy or plant a tree or what ever they hell it is that makes your little heart happy.
I will do what ever the hell I want, and you will never be able to change or influence that in an way.

It’s ok - I’m sure someone will still love you. Even though that bad man from the Internet won’t listen to you.......

 

[ugafish]

Good lord man - let it go
Not everyone has to agree with you
What is your obsession with why I don’t give a crap about this?
Move on - go save a puppy or plant a tree or what ever they hell it is that makes your little heart happy.
I will do what ever the hell I want, and you will never be able to change or influence that in an way.

It’s ok - I’m sure someone will still love you. Even though that bad man from the Internet won’t listen to you.......

I already called you out for not GAS. I accept that you don't GAS, that you will never GAS, but its a shame to see such a blatant example of selfishness.

 

[Nooga Dawg]

I already called you out for not GAS. I accept that you don't GAS, that you will never GAS, but its a shame to see such a blatant example of selfishness.

It’s a shame .... on no not a shame!
How will I sleep tonight, I’ll worry about this all day now.
shut up and move on to someone who gives damn about what you think.

 

[ugafish]

It’s a shame .... on no not a shame!
How will I sleep tonight, I’ll worry about this all day now.
shut up and move on to someone who gives damn about what you think.

How will you sleep if you know you gave your grandma the illness that killed her? Good question.

 

[Nooga Dawg]

How will you sleep if you know you gave your grandma the illness that killed her? Good question.

a better question is - why are you wasting your time arguing with a person you don’t know, who really does not give a damn about you or your opinions.

Lock yourself in your house, wear a mask and sit in the corner worrying about this. I am going to go on with my life. Get on a plane in the morning and go to work.
Now let it go and move on with your day.

 

[ugafish]

a better question is - why are you wasting your time arguing with a person you don’t know, who really does not give a damn about you or your opinions.

Lock yourself in your house, wear a mask and sit in the corner worrying about this. I am going to go on with my life. Get on a plane in the morning and go to work.
Now let it go and move on with your day.

Its not easy to educate a hard head, but its not impossible. I just hope you aren't responsible for your grandma's doom. Would be hard for you to live with unless you are as heartless as you appear on a message board.

 

[FlatsWaterDawg]

[QUOTE="Nooga Dawg, post: 4725394, member: 808"]a better question is - why are you wasting your time arguing with a person you don’t know, who really does not give a damn about you or your opinions.

Lock yourself in your house, wear a mask and sit in the corner worrying about this. I am going to go on with my life. Get on a plane in the morning and go to work.
Now let it go and move on with your day.[/QUOTE]

I suppose someone could ask you the very same question...

 

[Nooga Dawg]

Its not easy to educate a hard head, but its not impossible. I just hope you aren't responsible for your grandma's doom. Would be hard for you to live with unless you are as heartless as you appear on a message board.

I don’t need or want your education
I’ll live with my actions just fine
My grandmother will pass when its her time - not one day before.

 

[ugafish]

I don’t need or want your education
I’ll live with my actions just fine
My grandmother will pass when its her time - not one day before.

You badly need enlightenment. You denying that over and over proves it over and over. If your grandma gets the corona from you, she died because of you, and before she was supposed to go.

 

[so_comfort1]

I imagine all the “it’s just the flu” people mocking the concerned people is about to stop.

Probably not. Very little intellectual flexibility in that bubble.

 

[Nooga Dawg]

You badly need enlightenment. You denying that over and over proves it over and over. If your grandma gets the corona from you, she died because of you, and before she was supposed to go.

Just one of the many things that you and I disagree on
I don’t want your enlightenment, I don’t want a damn thing from you.
Bugger off and move on to someone who gives a damn about your thoughts.

 

[kdsdawg]

You badly need enlightenment. You denying that over and over proves it over and over. If your grandma gets the corona from you, she died because of you, and before she was supposed to go.

well that is not true at all, God decides when life begins and ends, God will take grandma when he is ready and there is nothing Nooga can do about it

 

[Nooga Dawg]

well that is not true at all, God decides when life begins and ends, God will take grandma when he is ready and there is nothing Nooga can do about it

Exactly

 

[FlatsWaterDawg]

well that is not true at all, God decides when life begins and ends, God will take grandma when he is ready and there is nothing Nooga can do about it

 

[ugafish]

Just one of the many things that you and I disagree on
I don’t want your enlightenment, I don’t want a damn thing from you.
Bugger off and move on to someone who gives a damn about your thoughts.

Whats sad is that you are more worried about me calling you out for idiocracy than you are of the impending healthcare crisis we face.

What else do we disagree on? You a big Fromm fan?

 

[Nooga Dawg]

Whats sad is that you are more worried about me calling you out for idiocracy than you are of the impending healthcare crisis we face.

What is sad is that you can’t let it go - I don’t have to agree with you and that’s perfectly ok.
Focus your time in things you can change and people who want your opinion. clearly I don’t.

 

[ugafish]

What is sad is that you can’t let it go - I don’t have to agree with you and that’s perfectly ok.
Focus your time in things you can change and people who want your opinion. clearly I don’t.

Whats sad is that you call me out for not letting it go while YOU are not letting it go. Pot meet kettle you are.