Ipsos polling
Pritzker 34%. Trump 40%, 26% other/undecided
Whitmer 36% Trump 41%, 23% other/undecided
Beshear 36% Trump 40%, 24% other/undecided
Harris 42% Trump 43%, 15% other/undecided
M. Obama 50% Trump 39%, 11% other/undecided
Biden 40%. Trump 40%, 20% other/undecided
Trump got 46.2 percent of the popular vote in 2016. Hillary got 48.2%
Trump got 46.8 percent of the popular vote in 2020. Biden got 51.3%.
Both candidates got a higher pct. in 2020 because the Libertarians drew only 1.18% of the vote in 2020 as opposed to the Libertarians getting 3.28% in 2016 and the Green Party getting 1.07%. This is likely due to the unpopularity of Hillary Clinton with independents and Republicans who refused to vote for Trump.
What's shown here is that you can't stand up in Donald Trump's voter outlook house. The floor is very high and stable, but the ceiling is very low and stable as well. Could Kennedy help Trump in swing states to get elected like he was helped in 2016 by the Libertarians? Possibly. But as of July 2nd, Kennedy was only securely on the ballot in five states and just one of those a swing state (Michigan).
What the elections before have shown us is that 53% of voting Americans do not want to vote for Trump. And these new polls don't show us anything that challenges that.
Can Trump win without the popular vote? Yes, he's done it once before, but he is only one of five presidents to do it and none ever served more than one term with the exception of GWB. And GWB won the popular vote in his next election, the only Republican to do so this century.
Trump's win over Clinton was by 77 electoral votes. That's the largest win gap in electoral votes for a non popular vote winner.
Trump will be trying to become only the second president in US history to serve non consecutive terms.
Interestingly, the only president to do it is Grover Cleveland. He is one of the five presidential candidates who lost an election while carrying the popular vote (Andrew Jackson, Samuel J. Tilden, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton are the others). Cleveland ran three times for POTUS and won the popular vote every time. Trump is still trying for his first.
I see four outcomes here.
1. Biden stays in, has another big gaffe or two and Trump wins easily due to Biden voter depression. Trump wouldn't garner 50% of the popular vote because enough non Trump voters would vote for Kennedy, a Libertarian, etc. to deny Trump a majority.
2. Biden stays in, doesn't have another gaffe and it's a 50/50 toss up.
3. Biden is replaced. The replacement breathes energy into the election. The replacement wins most if not all of the swing states and is president.
4. Biden is replaced. The replacement does not bring energy and it's a 50/50 toss up.
Biden staying in provides the only November where Trump isn't sweating (scenario 1)
Biden being replaced could end up with an embarrassing defeat for Trump. (scenario 3).
Pritzker 34%. Trump 40%, 26% other/undecided
Whitmer 36% Trump 41%, 23% other/undecided
Beshear 36% Trump 40%, 24% other/undecided
Harris 42% Trump 43%, 15% other/undecided
M. Obama 50% Trump 39%, 11% other/undecided
Biden 40%. Trump 40%, 20% other/undecided
Trump got 46.2 percent of the popular vote in 2016. Hillary got 48.2%
Trump got 46.8 percent of the popular vote in 2020. Biden got 51.3%.
Both candidates got a higher pct. in 2020 because the Libertarians drew only 1.18% of the vote in 2020 as opposed to the Libertarians getting 3.28% in 2016 and the Green Party getting 1.07%. This is likely due to the unpopularity of Hillary Clinton with independents and Republicans who refused to vote for Trump.
What's shown here is that you can't stand up in Donald Trump's voter outlook house. The floor is very high and stable, but the ceiling is very low and stable as well. Could Kennedy help Trump in swing states to get elected like he was helped in 2016 by the Libertarians? Possibly. But as of July 2nd, Kennedy was only securely on the ballot in five states and just one of those a swing state (Michigan).
What the elections before have shown us is that 53% of voting Americans do not want to vote for Trump. And these new polls don't show us anything that challenges that.
Can Trump win without the popular vote? Yes, he's done it once before, but he is only one of five presidents to do it and none ever served more than one term with the exception of GWB. And GWB won the popular vote in his next election, the only Republican to do so this century.
Trump's win over Clinton was by 77 electoral votes. That's the largest win gap in electoral votes for a non popular vote winner.
Trump will be trying to become only the second president in US history to serve non consecutive terms.
Interestingly, the only president to do it is Grover Cleveland. He is one of the five presidential candidates who lost an election while carrying the popular vote (Andrew Jackson, Samuel J. Tilden, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton are the others). Cleveland ran three times for POTUS and won the popular vote every time. Trump is still trying for his first.
I see four outcomes here.
1. Biden stays in, has another big gaffe or two and Trump wins easily due to Biden voter depression. Trump wouldn't garner 50% of the popular vote because enough non Trump voters would vote for Kennedy, a Libertarian, etc. to deny Trump a majority.
2. Biden stays in, doesn't have another gaffe and it's a 50/50 toss up.
3. Biden is replaced. The replacement breathes energy into the election. The replacement wins most if not all of the swing states and is president.
4. Biden is replaced. The replacement does not bring energy and it's a 50/50 toss up.
Biden staying in provides the only November where Trump isn't sweating (scenario 1)
Biden being replaced could end up with an embarrassing defeat for Trump. (scenario 3).
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