How among us cares to predict what will happen next in this Trump documents thing?
I will just for the fun of it with the caveat that I know no more about this than anyone, and much less than some of our LEOs and lawyers on here, but it’s the chat, so why not try a good natured experiment:
I will just for the fun of it with the caveat that I know no more about this than anyone, and much less than some of our LEOs and lawyers on here, but it’s the chat, so why not try a good natured experiment:
- Trump will contest the release of the warrant. It’s to his advantage to keep the public discourse as fact free as possible and, let's face it, this probably doesn't look good on paper.
- The judge will not unseal it, because DOJ doesn't really care to have it in the public either, they were just calling his bluff because he was impugning the Department and the FBI. Maybe they get an agreement that sees him cool his jets, but I sort of doubt it. More likely they just want his silence on the actual matter of the contents.
- To review: Trump took documents. NA tried to get them back. Trump didn’t want to give everything back. I am guessing that, having gone round and round with his lawyers, given a cooperating source or two, DOJ said screw it – Donald is off watching golf somewhere, there's probable cause, let’s end this quietly.
- Donald was predictably pissed. Felt violated one the one hand, “They can’t do this to ME!” and terrified on the other, “What are they going to try to DO to me?” so he makes a big stink on Monday night, knowing that he can get ahead of all this in the press (or, possibly, thinking that the DOJ will go to the press, because of course everyone must be corrupt…)
- We are unlikely ever to -know- the exact contents of those boxes, as the language on the warrant is bound to be vague as to the exact contents. Are there documents relevant to other investigations? or that might lead to charges? Possibly. Are there important natsec or other sensitive documents? Maybe, given that the request to unseal was signed by the DOJ Chief of counter intel. Seems unlikely, if they are so sensitive as to require return, that we will ever (or at least not for a long time) get to know more than just the "kind" of documents that were in question.
- All of what follows if the warrant remains sealed is handled by lawyers behind closed doors, though of course in public Trump will to his dying day say that he was railroaded by a corrupt DOJ and the FBI and blah blah blah. This will be a dangerous game for him, but one we know he loves playing.
- Anyone else would have handled this differently (or been already in jail) and maybe Trump should have, because the NA and the DOJ don’t really want to charge him. As some on here have said, to charge him for mishandling records would be just a little too minor I think – what a basketball coach once called "a ticky tack foul" - and I say this despite we don’t know what he had, or what they thought he was going to do with it, but it would have to be REAL sensitive for it to be big enough to merit an actual indictment. I am guessing they just wanted whatever it was back bad enough to risk handing Trump a trump to play (outrage over the raid).
- Garland still doesn’t want to charge him and will resist pressure to do so. He seemed pissed, but I don’t think a felony mishandling of records was the endgame. My guess is that getting the records was the endgame. Perhaps those factor in other investigations, TBD, and that is why Trump was hoarding them… but maybe not! Maybe it was just material he needed in order to "write" his memoirs. Only Trump, his lawyers, anyone he tells, and the DOJ will get to know until the day comes when the media is able to get its way through FOIA requests and subsequent lawsuits and appeals, ad nauseum.
- Of course, the deep irony is that Trump made it a felony to violate the very laws it now seems he violated. There is a world where he forces them into charging him, I guess. More games. But it would surprise me if he is ever charged. I was surprised that Garland went as far as he did today! And I honestly don't know enough about what Trump might have had access to in order to take that would cause such an epic event as to charge and arrest a former President.
