This is MAGA?
- Thread starter MRDAWG
- Start date
Giddy? Most of my clients are manufactures. Nothing about the prospect of a recession makes me giddy.
I think you are the poster more than any other who has been taking victory laps, including suggesting that Trump is intentionally manipulating the equities markets to drive rates down, which is some wild stuff, I must say.
Not sure how you say that we are closer to peace in Ukraine. Trump attempted to cede every major negotiation point to Russia before getting to the table and Europe is not having it. Trump promised peace and so far all he has done is destroy eighty years of alliances with Western Europe with nothing to show for it.
If we avoid a recession, it will only because bad polling scares Trump enough to try and walk back his plans, although I suspect it’s too late.
Businesses and markets hate chaos, and that’s all we’ve gotten so far. DOGE is absurd, with firings and rehirings. Tariffs are on, they’re off, they’re back on again, no they’re off. Trump has now talked about annexing Canada and Greenland (whether they like it or not) enough that the world is believing him. It’s destabilizing when the prior leader of the free world starts to attack his former allies and sound like just another expansionist authoritarian.
No giddiness here, but no surprise either.
Trump doesn't care. He wants retribution against the country. He wants to bring it all down. He is an evil man. This describes him pretty well:
Trump is not a complicated man.
His every executive function exists to satisfy his ego. He is a covetous person consumed by an insatiable desire for acquisition, a man who seems to take the seven deadly sins as a seven-day challenge. He sees every relationship as a game of dominance and seems to reject the very idea of a mutually beneficial transaction. He treats everyone around him, from employees and political allies to members of his own family, as tools to use and then discard. To cozy up to Trump is to sacrifice your dignity to his cravings and desires.
Understand these basic traits about Trump — and there is not much more to understand — and you can all but predict his behavior in any given situation. Yes, he is erratic, volatile, capricious and compulsive. But the common conceit that he is unpredictable is belied by the ease with which even a casual observer can plot his movements from A to B.
In a perfect world there would be no tariffs, and no subsidies. We live in an imperfect world where we lust for power where we can be in control of not only ourselves, but others. Trump is a prime example where lust for power exceeds his ability to understand the consequences. Those around him will not try to change his thought process for fear of losing their power and hence their status.
Trump has made some very positive changes to improve our economy, our national defense, and our debt load which will be more apparent in the long term. I just hope that he uses the savings from DOGE to reduce debt. Reducing taxes without reducing debt is unwise. Tariffs should not be used as a means to impose your will on others to force compliance but used only to level the playing field where tariffs are used unfairly against you. No tariffs, no subsidies, would be ideal and supply and demand would determine free market prices.
Trump needs to slow down and realize this mess was not made overnight. He can't force feed the American people, nor our allies to impose his will.
Trump has made some very positive changes to improve our economy, our national defense, and our debt load which will be more apparent in the long term. I just hope that he uses the savings from DOGE to reduce debt. Reducing taxes without reducing debt is unwise. Tariffs should not be used as a means to impose your will on others to force compliance but used only to level the playing field where tariffs are used unfairly against you. No tariffs, no subsidies, would be ideal and supply and demand would determine free market prices.
Trump needs to slow down and realize this mess was not made overnight. He can't force feed the American people, nor our allies to impose his will.
Like I said please bump when we leave NATO and the country is in recession.
We are closer to peace than ever because wildly enough the strategy of throwing money at Ukraine and talking shit about Putin was deemed less effective than actually trying to broker peace. Shocker.
Lots of sectors of the economy have been in recession for 2+ years while government and big tech boomed. The reversal of that trend is messy to the stock market. Notwithstanding all that, we aren’t headed to recession as defined by sequential quarters of negative GDP - which btw we had under Biden.
If only Kamala were in charge.
It was cute once. Find another joke.
Jesus. We should just walk away and let them kill each other at this point. Both sides are too stupid and blood hungry to want to end anything
Two takeaways…..
1) Your very confident prediction of recession is backed up by Goldman, who based on the market selloff and recent Trump comments have raised their recession probability by a whopping 5 percent….from 15 to 20 percent.
2) My “wild” take about Trump choosing his words to move bond markets and the fed….maybe not so wild.
Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing — The Wall Street Journal
The economy’s pilot has a new message: Fasten your seat belts
Both sides bloodthirsty?? Good god , would the bloodthirsty Ukrainians be killing Russians without this war? Would that drone attack have happened without this war? Would we even know who Zelenskyy is without Russia starting this bloodshed? Ukrain really wanted this war to happen is your take?
My only issue with this post I lost 2 good sized chunks of business into the EU due to them unilaterally imposing massive tariffs on the products we were transporting to the EU. It was strictly protectionism and the U.S. didnt respond.
There was a time when our benevolence was noble and in the best interest of all involved but that time has passed. Im not saying everything has to be completely equal but its time to pop the U.S. titta outta the EU's mouth as well as other trade partners. Imo, every American should understand that we give subsidized products free access to our market while we have to pay thru the nose and jump thru hoops to gain limited access to others and it needs to change one way or the other.
Look. He is in Saudi Arabia supposedly working on a peace deal. This whole Russia vs Ukraine thing has been going on and off for a while. Before Trump was in office the first time. There are a lot of foreign policy experts who believe this war could have easily been avoided by both the Ukraine and Russia. There are some that will go to their grave telling you it was nato and our fault that this even happened. I don’t like either side. They both are snakes in the grass. Russia hit the Ukraine while supposed peace talks were going on as well. Not close to the scale this was. 337 drones attacked Russia. Drones we provided them.
this is not a good look no matter which side of the fence you sit on. Right?
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Wrong. Putin understands the language of force and blood, and that's it. Attempting to negotiate with him as if he is a rational and reasonable actor is worse than a waste of time. It actually sets up more of the same from him in the future.
Equating little difference between Ukraine and Russia completely ignores recent history as well as the history between the two entities over the last one hundred years. "I don't like either side" is akin to saying the same about WW2 prior to our involvement in 1941. Ukraine isn't perfect (neither was the UK), but they are clearly the country in this fight that deserves our support. There is no moral equivalence here.
This is exactly why the language and actions of Trump regarding Ukraine have been so destructive. He ceded major negotiating points before formal talks even started, which Putin will ruthlessly exploit both now and in the future. It's exactly why any proposed peace must include real and lasting security guarantees for Ukraine (unlike the entirely useless security guarantees that were used to entice Ukraine to give up their nukes after the dissolution of the USSR) or they won't and shouldn't do the deal.
If we refuse to backstop Ukrainian security in the future to help secure peace, it sends a very clear message to both Putin and Europe. And if Putin refuses to accept real security guarantees, it makes it perfectly clear what his future plans are. There are no other interpretations to make.
What you are suggesting is effectively a NATO arrangement (i.e. if you attack Ukraine we will use Americans to fight Russians). It is totally unrealistic....... Just as unrealistic as expecting Ukraine to somehow win using "force and blood." Bottom line - it is either a path to the continued loss of lives in an unwinnable war, or a path to truly endanger American lives.
Two things can be possible at the same time:
1) Putin is a thug who started the War, and he doesn't deserve concessions.
2) The only path to a peace that wouldn't risk American lives is to work with both him and Ukraine - and that means concessions.
Will there is so much to unpack here. This is straight from msnbc. I heard this same rhetoric last night. There have been many who have a very different opinion here. You habe read them on this forum. I can acknowledge that Putin is a snake. And he is a terrible human being. But he is a leader currently of a nation we should try to not be at war with. I think we can agree on that. You apparently can read putin’s mind and know what he is going to do before he will do it. When I say I don’t like either side. I am talking about the current regime’s in both countries.
Both guys have now attacked during a possible cease fire and peace talk. Zelensky spent the last week begging for a peace deal. Begging for us to come back to the table. We agree to meet his team for peace talks and he attacks Moscow. If you want to absolve him for this fine. But it just lets you know how little peace actually means to him. He is only at the table because he has no choice.
I don’t care about the history. Just basic humanity should be in play here. How many more have to die so Russia can try to get a quarter of the Ukraine back, and we can fund the Ukraine to weaken Russia as much as possible. I think enough people have suffered and died. I have already said Putin is a psycho. You better believe zelensky is on a similar level too. This only lends more proof to that. Along with his childish antics with both Biden and Trump. The upheaval from this war reaped on the rest of the world needs to end.
It is funny that you believe Putin will be fine with his natural enemies parked on his doorstep. When you know we would be losing our minds if the same thing happened here.
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This seems to be a foreign concept to folks out there. They just want to go barreling into ww3. Blows my mind. Putin or zelensky don’t deserve to be pissed on if they were on fire. Neither one of them. But no way this ends without concessions like you said. In no way does Putin deserve any concessions. Doesn’t matter in this case. It has to happen.
JP morgan is up to a 40% likelihood of a recession "owing to extreme US policies".Two takeaways…..
1) Your very confident prediction of recession is backed up by Goldman, who based on the market selloff and recent Trump comments have raised their recession probability by a whopping 5 percent….from 15 to 20 percent.
2) My “wild” take about Trump choosing his words to move bond markets and the fed….maybe not so wild.
Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing — The Wall Street Journal
The economy’s pilot has a new message: Fasten your seat beltsapple.news
As I said, if Trump gets spooked, he can quickly change policies which would move that likelihood down. If not, the likelihood will continue to rise.
But more to the point, I stated over and over again before the election the problems with Trump's proposed tariff policies. Now that Trump is implementing those policies in the most chaotic manner possible, the markets seem to agree with me. Tariffs aren't new or magical, despite how Trump talks about them. Complaining about the cost of living while supporting the extent of Trump's tariffs is economic stupidity.
Trump has even managed to take the negative impacts of tariffs with our largest trade partner and supercharge them by the repeated and inexplicable talk of annexation. WTF is up with that?
I should have clarified myself regarding the comments about Trump and the equity markets. It's not wild that you mention it as much as it's wild you take no issue with the idea of the POTUS intentionally manipulating the equity markets down to achieve other goals. Plenty of presidents have attempted to impact the equity markets in the past, but it has often been during times of crises and as far as I can determine always in an effort to stem panic or otherwise buoy the markets. I can't think of an example of a POTUS intentionally driving the markets down, but maybe I'm missing one.
The nature of the stalemate is threefold:
1) Putin will willingly sacrifice millions of Russian lives. He does not give a shit.
2) America is (rightly x 1,0000) not willing to sacrifice American lives. And Putin knows this.
3) Ukraine's only leverage is American support....but all it does is support the status quo....which Zalenski seems content to roll with.
Given these undeniable facts, the strategy of talking shit about Putin instead of talking to him....and throwing dollars into an unwinnable War is so dumb.
The world is a cruel place, and Ukraine isn't in NATO. We can stand "on principle" and watch millions more die (how principled is that?).....or we can broker peace. And save lives.
And what does the fed do if not manipulate markets to a desired goal? Bottom line - a lower treasury yield benefits many more Americans than does an inflated NASDAQ......lower and middle income Americans struggling with inflation and looking for some relief on prices. By your admission, Trump was elected to lower prices. And until you actually see prices rise due to his tariff policy......what has already happened is that energy prices and interest rates have come down. Will be interesting to see where cpi shakes out tomorrow. The lag effect of OER should continue to help keep it lower.
A flat stock market and another 50 bps of interest rate movements down would be a huge boost for the general economy. Particularly lower and middle income folks.
I've never suggested that Ukraine could win this war in the traditional, military sense just as I've never suggested that Ukraine won't have to make concessions.
In fact, the one time I detailed a potential plan for peace on here, I explicitly stated that Ukraine would have to concede land for security guarantees, but they have to be real security guarantees with teeth. Ukraine was provided "security guarantees" for giving up their nukes that obviously meant nothing. They have every reason to believe that the same weak promises this time will result in the same eventual outcome in the future.
Conversely, if Putin refuses to accept any deal that involves Ukrainian security guarantees from the West, its crystal clear what his future intent is, and he is the one unwilling to make concessions.
If Trump was actually trying to act as a fair arbiter in ending the war, he would be clearly stating or sending signals regarding these facts, but he isn't. That is also very telling.
You are missing a key reality. Putin is willing to throw away millions of Russian lives, that's true. But the Russian GDP is about the same size as Texas, and is even more reliant on energy sales. Putin does not have a limitless ability to prosecute this war, and he will continue to do an ongoing cost/benefit analysis of the effort.
What Trump has done very effectively is to reduce the perceived cost and increase the perceived benefit of Putin taking a very hard line in any negotiations. That's just a fact, and it doesn't help us in any way get to a fair and lasting peace.
How is a "security guarantee" any different than the key feature of NATO.....which is a total non-starter for Putin, and arguably the reason he invaded Ukraine in the first place.
Conversely, aligning our economic interests with Ukraine and putting Americans to work in that country provides an implied security deterrent that falls short of the non-starter of American boots on the ground. Furthermore, it sounds as if the EU is willing to provide those guarantees and boots on the ground. Sounds like a win to me for Americans.
Lol at thriving economy. A heavily manipulated and artificially propped economy.
I didn't say who has to issue the security guarantees. In fact, I said "the West". Of course, if our European allies provide the guarantees and we stayed allied to them, there is some implicit US backstop in the event Putin attacks European boots on the ground. There are some creative ways to get there. What I am saying is that Ukraine conceding land without real security guarantees isn't a concession, it's a total victory for Putin and should not be allowed.
Putin will do everything in his power to stop a large and functioning democracy with economic eyes to the west from existing on his border. That is why he attacked Ukraine, far more than any perceived offensive threat from NATO, and without guarantees he will continue to undermine any legitimate government there.
Back to the topic of tariffs, here is some of the latest action from Trump:
- Trump just raised Steel and Aluminum tariffs on Canada to 50%
- Trump said that Canada can have the tariffs removed if they become the 51st state.
- Trump threatened massive tariffs on Canadian Automobiles on April 2nd.
- Trump Threatens to declare a National Emergency because of Canadian electricity tariffs.
There isn't a trading partner in the world who will believe a single word out of this administration. In fact, this is entirely deranged behavior. You can make claims of 4D chess, but I don't think the facts support you.
I'm not wild about the zig zag on tariffs. Like just about everything....I place my bets on the self interests of those making decisions. His legacy is his self interest. And when it is all said and done, it does Trump no good to have a "wrecked" economy or higher prices. Lots of words and noise....intended to angle for a good ultimate outcome......and yes, I do believe some of the "chaos" is intended to bring yields down.
So, when the actions of POTUS are inexplicable and indefensible, you just assume he must be doing the right thing because of his legacy. Stay with me here, but maybe he thinks he is acting in the best interest of his legacy and he's wrong.
Every word out of his mouth about tariffs and who pays them is wrong, yet he keeps making the same statements. Maybe he actually believes what he says?
How about this. Can we agree that if we do have a recession, it will be because of Trump's policies?
Actually I am quite pleased if we had a hand in it. Actually will be even happier to find out real damage was done. Wow you feel sorry that Ukrain isn’t just sitting back but instead taking the fight to them, how dare them, the gall that they defend themselves, that’s an interesting take for an American. And just to be clear again, I love any misery Russia is feeling because of this war they brought onto themselves .
It might be time to at least entertain the possibility that Trump isn't the genius businessman/negotiator you thought you were placing your bets on and that his erratic behavior isn't 4D chess, it's just erratic.
You and I will never agree here because I believe the economic and business chops of Trump, Bessent and co. are infinitely better than both the chops and more importantly the general economic philosophies of Biden, Yellen and co. So yes - I trust these guys to make decisions that ultimately lead to economic success for all…..and not funded by government.
As to any recession’s “fault”….there is a recessionary element in any effort to cut spending and payroll….but I don’t think it moves the needle by itself. Not big enough. I think an unprecedented number of people have been teetering for awhile now given high prices, a frozen housing market, credit card debt, etc. The averages in terms of spending and consumption are skewed by the wealthy…..I think the low and middle class has been barely hanging on for awhile now.
Absolutely true. But how do tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum, and lumber do anything other than make it worse? Can we answer this without the omelet analogy?
You can add increased labor costs as a result of mass deportations to that equation as well.
Interesting take. It is a humanitarian take. It is hurting people not just in Russia or the Ukraine but all over the world. I find it interesting that you don’t care how many Ukrainians are killed as long as it hurts someone else. I don’t like either of them. But you have two leaders banging away and killing as many of their citizens as they can. Neither one of them give a shit. There are so many that don’t blame just Russia. Nelson. Go do some research on the conflict. How this has been brewing and why? I don’t care who wins. It is funny. You act like you are on the Ukraine’s side. They freaking hate you. And supporting it is doing them no favors and just getting more people in their country killed. 🤦♂️
They have been defending themselves for how long and at what costs. How dare someone actually give a shit about stopping a war with no possible winner
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If they do......it will be proof on its face that Trump is a Russian asset and is doing Putin's bidding, right?
Much better to say "my God, how can this man remain in power," send hundreds of billions in an unwinnable proxy war, cost a million lives, and never once try and broker peace. Because.......he's terrible.......and because.....Trump = Russia = Bad.
Maybe some method in the madness that was standing our ground publicly when Z tried to use our press to gain support and do a 180 on an already negotiated deal? It was so appalling, right? And then we pulled our intelligence support? Heartless. Hmmmm.....maybe actually working to get something done rather than stumbling through poll-tested speeches and doing nothing is a good thing?
Question for you: how do you feel about the 1980s GOP? Specifically, vis a vis foreign policy?
More evidence that these people are either legitimately stupid or believes that we are.
Different time and situation. The US and the USSR were the undisputed global powers.....with a chunk of Western Europe part of the latter. Someone had to win the cold war.
There is zero doubt now who runs the World. We are not in a cold war with Russia. As someone else mentioned, they are a relatively small economy......but with a huge military and nukes. Poking that bear in the same way we did the Soviet Union? A very high risk with very little reward.
We did have success engaging Soviet leadership. We met with them. We held Summits. Had we just isolated and talked $hit as Biden did re: Putin, we wouldn't have had the success we did.
