Watch the 10 year…..
- Thread starter -lowcountrydawg
- Start date
Market was digging it until the chart was unveiled. Didn’t like that at all.
Selling off now a bit. Pretty muted relative to potential Trump announcement factor up
Or down. Will see tomorrow.
My prediction is that the media will scream bloody murder…..that will spurn panic selling especially from retail investors. Gonna be bloody tomorrow.
Then the deal announcements will begin to filter in. I think the 1/2 reciprocal announcement signals that Trump recognizes he cares about not totally spooking markets. If he didn’t care he would have announced 1/1 tariffs.
Yep. Market hated that $hit as expected.
If it is a precursor to negotiating leverage and trade deals, this is one of the most obvious buying opportunities ever. And good news for the economy in general.
If he is intent on truly re-configuring the world economic balance, which would take years, the market is gonna continue to sell off with every day that deals don’t get done. And the economy is gonna take a hit. Danger is market panic if other countries escalate.
The thing is that the best negotiating leverage comes with a signal that you are willing to do the latter.
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Even if Trump gets his trade deals, I’m not sure the consumer and businesses are better off. Tariffs shrink the world marketplace place. I don’t know how you grow the economy with a shrinking marketplace. Punishing American businesses (including manufacturing) and consumers by making their supplies and goods more expensive and less available is a tough sell.
Depending on the product you squeeze em just enough to effectively shift some of a really wide margin back to the US….but keep em in profit. Like any negotiation. We have such a large trade deficit that the leverage is real….and there are dollars there that can benefit the US without crippling trading partners.
If we just implemented the tariffs with zero chance of adjustment, it would be bad for everyone.
Every country out there has been milking us for decades to a tune of well over a trillion a year. These tarrifs will cause many to reduce their tarrifs on us. It will hurt them some but it is needed for the US to remain a power. The tarrifs are also bringing in massive amounts of investment into the US. Over a trillion and that number will continue to grow. The means lots of high paying jobs. DOGE will continue finding and cutting waste and hopefully get to a balanced budget. Congress sure as hell ain’t going to help him. Not sure what else Trump could do besides continue printing money and juicing the market until the ultimate collapse.
It’s literally the world’s dumbest negotiation. Tax the American people thinking all the t-shirt factories in Cambodia and Sri Lanka are suddenly coming home.
Oh, and the ‘tariff rates’ that Trump’s team came up with are completely made up. Literally non existent. They just threw something on the wall and made it up. I can’t imagine there’s a dumber human being than Donald Trump. Just beyond stupid.
Oh, and the ‘tariff rates’ that Trump’s team came up with are completely made up. Literally non existent. They just threw something on the wall and made it up. I can’t imagine there’s a dumber human being than Donald Trump. Just beyond stupid.
Milking us? How so? There are no trillions in tariffs charged to American exporters. That’s just so wrong.
Every manufacturing business, retail business, construction project, etc is dependent on foreign goods. Consumers use foreign goods. If you think consumers are willing to pay more just so we can thump our chests you will be mistaken. If you think businesses will keep their current work forces in a shrinking marketplace you are mistaken. Trump wasn’t elected because of trannies or immigration, those were sideshow issues, he was elected because of inflation and the economy. He is raising inflation and tanking the economy. I voted for Trump but his trade policy is bat shit crazy.
Tarrifs are not inflation. Higher prices, yes. I do expect pain but there really was no other option. It will work its way out and I believe turn around in a year. Our stock market and economy have been juiced by our government running massive deficits. What was your plan?
Yes there will be inflation, but that isn’t the worst part. I don’t think people have wrapped their arms around the impact of shrinking the world marketplace. This means fewer buyers, fewer sellers, less choice, product shortages.
Everyone in this country is about to get a very painful and personal lesson in tariffs and global trade.
Jeez with the 10 year. You are a broken record. The wealth that has been eliminated already exceeds any benefit to this economy from a drop in the 10 year. He’s taking us into a recession, and I highly doubt that the 10 year rate is going to make a rat’s ass of difference in getting us out of it.
But to your point, the mortgage rates may drop a point or two - does that offset the 25% home price increase due to tariffs?
Tariffs are not inflation? Rising prices is literally the definition of inflation.
The 10 year was the best measure of how the markets liked or disliked the messaging on tariffs second by second. 100x more volume than the futures or futures etf. That was my point.
In a world where that chart that was put forth became permanent, no doubt it would pluck up a lot of shit. Ain’t gonna happen. The panic on tariffs and questioning about whether this dude in charge is really willing to do this?…..is what provides leverage in the trade deals. I agree it is pushing the envelope risk wise. We will see how it plays out.
If the economy went to shit I can promise you housing prices would not go up even if rates came crashing down.
Conversely - we may find ourselves with newly negotiated trade deals, lower rates (which = more affordable housing even if the price is higher), AND a healthy market with uncertainty eliminated. If this is a precursor to negotiation….thats a good outcome.
If he literally rolls with the chart he laid out with no negotiating flexibility……the chat libs will win the debate here. I don’t see that happening. But not wild about the risks being taken with escalation.
We could also (and more likely) see higher prices, reduced investment AND a slowing economy leading to the stagflation of the 1970s, which would be the worst own goal in the history of economics. Literally every economist is saying this is a terrible, stupid idea.
Literally everyone in the MSM said Joe Biden wasn’t a corpse. Let’s pump the brakes and see what happens eh?
And it'll jump up when most countries drop or dramatically reduce tariffs. But as you know, the market isn't the correct gauge. Nevertheless, what will be your narrative then? I guess I'll tune into MSNBC to find out.
People aren't stupid. We were on a disastrous path and everyone knows it can't be fixed in 48 hours.
Thank you for realizing that and being vulnerable enough to state what this is... pure bull$shit and stupidity.
When I hear you say this stuff it gives me pause. You are one of the smartest people I know. It is ironic. Two of the smartest guys I know stand on total opposite sides of this. We will see how long he can hold out before going back to status quo. How much can he move things in our favor. Canada broke already. I just hope he can use other ways to keep inflation down or balance it. This will be an interesting topic to revisit in 6-12 months. I will hope it is a positive one. To quote one of my favorite movies. When you are playing chicken. You got to know the when to flinch.
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I am devastated. My job is on the line and I’ll be meeting back to back with retailers in the coming days with buyers who are scared.
Well
$500,000 4.5% 30 year mortgage - $2,500
$400,000 6.5% 30 year mortgage - $2,500
But tariffs won’t add 25% to home prices
You aren’t looking at it the right way. Adding tariffs make us more isolationist and they shrink the world marketplace. Think of how it would affect your business if a percentage of your customers and / or suppliers were no longer available to you. That is the net impact of tariffs.
Look at it this way Zinger, what would happen to your business if barriers were created that effectively cut off a quarter of your customers and / or suppliers? That is the net impact of shrinking markets. Tariffs make us more isolationist, thus shrinking the size of the marketplace. They are being put in place to help American manufacturing, but it is hurting American producers. Few if any US manufacturers use only American materials, meaning their costs are going up. I build apartment complexes on American soil but a sizable percentage of our materials come from overseas. Some of these materials you can’t get domestically. Builders work on 3% to 5% margins and take 100% of the risk (cost savings usually go to the owner) so we can’t just arbitrarily use more expensive American sourced items. Taking away choice doesn’t make us more efficient or better.
Nearly every country we trade with charges us some degree of tarrifs. Many are massive and unfair yet that isn’t isolating them but would make us isolationists for terrifying them at 50%? Many of these countries will lower their tarrifs on us making trade better. New markets will open up where others will be prohibitive.
These tarrifs will (are) bringing in massive amounts of investment into our country which means jobs.Jobs means taking people off of welfare and making them consumers (paying taxes rather than being a burden).
Trump is also pushing tax cuts which will offset higher prices from tarrifs. Just need to push it through congress.
There will be some short term pain but that was coming no matter who was president.
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