Watch the 10 year…..
- Thread starter -lowcountrydawg
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That's just wrong. Tariffs ARE NOT that high on the US. In fact, the average tariff in the EU on US exports is around 1%. There are Most Favored Nation tariffs on some products, but even that is 10% and the US levees 25% tariffs on pickup trucks, for example.
It's no shock that Trump just straight lies about tariff rates to bolster his argument for tariffs and to sell it to the sheep.
Wait for the dreaded "transitory" descriptor. That's when you know it's bad...
I think I would be more mad if this was a complete surprise. I dislike many things about Trump, but he has been literally campaigning on tariffs for over a decade.
So, while the Biden administration destroyed our labor force by importing 40 million illegal aliens to do under the table labor, at least Trump is open about what his plan is and people get to vote on it. I think this is an incredibly risky move that I am not sure will pay off.
That being said, he’s doing what he said he would do. This is what the people voted for. Right or wrong.
Yeah, tariffs are taxes. So lots of tariffs are a tax increase.
Luckily, I have explained this so many times on here that I think everyone gets it. But about two months ago, they were people who used to post on this board to tariffs were going to be paid by other countries, which is hilarious.
A tariff is an extra tax on imported good to make the domestic good more price competitive. It is literally artificially raising the price of a foreign-made good so that the American consumer will choose the American good. But either way, the price for that good has gone up.
So, this will increase inflation. The counter argument to that is that if overall economic activity slows, then they may cancel out.
A ford Spokesman said Ford felt it could sell an additional 5% to 7% Ford F-150's worldwide if they had open trade and reduced tariffs across Europe and Asia. They were hamstrung in most of these countries with tariffs and taxes. We are talking 50,000 trucks or $ 2 billion in potential sales. I'm fairly sure they would be happy with 25% change or so and $ 500 million more in sales.
I have not done research on Ford F-150's but Cadalac's in Germany are taxes / tariffed at about 30% in total compared to 5% range of BMW's coming into the US. That was from a General Motors guy doing an interview several weeks ago. I'm not a trade expert but that certainly seems UNFAIR to me. Folks in my family own Cadillacs, Ford F-150's and BMW's - all good vehicles.
None of these comments came from Trump.
I figured you may answer the question i didn’t want to ask you. I had a good feeling this was the case. Had a similar call with a friend who may have some of his materials sky rocket as well. Which could work into his margins. Had dinner with a government employee who was all in on trump until her job may be in jeopardy. I get it. This is also a reason why I have been complaining for four years. What Biden did to my pay and my business was nothing short of criminal. I took two pay cuts and had the value of my business over long term if I ever want to sell and get out cut by 20-30 percent. If I continue to write the same amount of business over the next five years, the value wouldn’t change. So I had to change my model, get out of my comfort zone and spend much more, all while putting four kids thru college and graduate school. While also dealing with lost business due to nearly dying and being unable to work for a few months. Generally speaking trump has been much better for my industry. I don’t expect it to change. I am for once hopeful. And off the the best start to the year since I have been open. I would be a hypocrite if I didn’t listen to the other side. My very long time friend, I will hope some how things will change quickly and not affect your margins. If I know you and that brain, you will figure it out. It is happening whether we like it or not.
Just talked to my lumber supplier. He hasn’t been worked up about this that much. He still isn’t. We have been using mostly pine for awhile. Even rafters under 28’. Dont think OSB will be impacted. Think if we can get lower rates it will more than offset building costs associated with tariffs. Maybe I’ll use a slightly lower grade LVP or bite the bullet and start paying $1.49 instead of $1.19. I think a lot of plumbing valves come from China. And of course appliances. Overall, Don’t think trumps tariffs will have near the impact of Bidens inflationary decisions on our building costs. Especially if rates do ease.
Using your example, there’s already a 25% tariff on trucks imported into the US, so the market is already skewed. Wonder how many F-150s Ford would sell without that protection in the US?
Is it unfair for the US to skew the domestic market with tariffs?
The numbers in those charts are completely made up. They are not tariffs that are charged by other countries. Someone else in the thread already posted a chart showing what the numbers represent. But the easiest way to know the numbers are made up is the White House's chart stated uninhabited islands have 10% tariffs on American goods. Think about that. The White House rolled a chart saying we are going to be charging tariffs on products made and exported by penguins because the penguins have a 10% tariff on American goods.
Beyond that, much of the rhetoric and policy is based on an idea that a trade deficit is inherently bad, and further, that the deficit is indicative of a country ripping us off. We have a trade deficit with Madagascar because we buy vanilla and nickel from them. Which we need and/or want. Guess what? Madagascar doesn't need/want much of what we can sell them, and to the extent they do need that stuff, they can't afford it. Not because of tariffs, but because they are poor. Why are we taxing American companies for importing vanilla and nickel from Madagascar because of this dynamic? It makes no sense.
Completely made up? What channel are you watching? We are charging roughly half what those other countries are charging us.
If the announced tariffs stayed put, I think that's exactly what would happen. I don't think they will. This is a starting point for negotiation....an unrealistically high starting point.
As a negotiating tactic, starting high and even being unpredictable / chaotic can be effective. I think he's taking too much risk in the way he is rolling these out. A panic selloff can lead to breaking things you didn't want to break.......that's a lot to risk if this is simply a way to negotiate.
If he truly is intent on keeping these tariffs in place for the pipe dream of effectively moving all manufacturing to the US......I will be standing with Will with my get Trump pitchfork out. That won't happen.....but the market has to price at least a chance of that happening....and that is the risk in the way this has all rolled out.
As a commercial real estate dude, I'm digging the lower rates.....but not at the expense of the economy. The REITs are about flat....when typically they pop on this kind of interest rate drop.
Some REITs may be flat. Hotel REITs are getting hammered. Talked to a developer this morning who has a large deposit on approximately $50k of goods for a hotel. The purchase price has now increased to over $100k.
I know. This is such a good post tiv. I forget it too when posting in these threads. It isn’t like he hasn’t been saying this for a long time. Hell I saw him give a speech back in 2011 yesterday addressing tariffing China. Despite being a big donor to Obama this is where he started to undermine him some. Started to lead to the famous torching of Trump at his presidential dinner with Trump in the audience. Point is, this is certainly not unexpected
You need to read the fact checking on those reciprocal charts. When you do, you will realize you have been fooled along with everyone else who tends to believe what Trump tells them. The whole thing is a farce.
Who is doing the fact checking? That is the problem. I have seen experts from both sides of the fence explain how it can be a disaster and how it will work. I have also seen how the negotiations could help from both sides. I have seen your opinion out there. Not saying it is wrong, but no one knows what the finished product will be. Same folks were predicting this 8 years ago. Exact same experts. You can go fact check your fact checker from 8 years ago and see if I am right. There is a list of the same experts raising hell 8 years ago who were wrong.
This is obviously on a bigger scale. And it very risky from him. Not denying that, but you have 0.00 idea of how this will end. Same as me.
The “tariff rates charged by foreign countries” figures in the charts DT held up are complete, total nonsense. It’s sad, but unsurprising, that he would lie about something this important. It’s equally sad that anyone would believe him.
He was talking about the chart which purported to state figures representing a calculation of tariffs and non-tariff trader barriers charged on US goods. Those numbers do not represent tariffs, but instead are the product of some formula they made up based on trade deficits. The easiest way to point out they are not what the White House said they are is that the chart stated an island inhabited only by wildlife is charging the US 10% tariffs. The Council of Penguins may be unfriendly to US goods, but as far as I know they have not gone so far as to put tariffs on our goods. And we put tariffs on a territory that is only inhabited by a military base with US/UK military personnel. So we put tariffs on our own military installation. The good news is I don't think charging tariffs on the goods produced by penguins and imported to the United States will have much impact on the US or global economy.
I get what he was getting at. More deeper responding to the “experts” fact checking. When they did the same things 8 years ago. I saw quotes put out by these folks 8 years ago. A comparison down the line. It was pretty funny to read. So many hypocrites in this country. One guy was screaming at the camera that this would be a disaster. It was quite the funny montage. No one know where this will actually end. There are ideas, but economic predictions have been pretty lousy over the past 8 years. Some of these same people were touting the economy under Biden. Which leads me to question any credibility they may have. Personally I think this is a massive game of chicken.
China has massive tariffs on us, but yet they seem to not have an issue with being considered isolationist. Their economy has grown massively by tearing us to death. Why is it that it won’t work for us? In fact, everybody has higher tariffs than us, but somehow we shouldn’t do it?
The 10 years is now down to 3.88 after China retaliates with a 34% across-the-board tariff on US goods. Should be another bloodbath for stocks.
We all need to re-familiarize ourselves with the concept of stagflation, because that’s where we are likely headed.
Yes, he did campaign advocating for tariffs as a part of his agenda. The other side was so bad I had to pick my poison. I agree with a lot (most) of the Trump agenda so it seemed like i was picking the better of the two options, and it may still have been the right choice, but I didn’t think he would push this aggressively and this soon for tariffs. Trump thinks he is a master-negotiator and he is a self made billionaire, but it isn’t like he has been successful in every venture. I’m used to hardball negotiating in my business, but there is a difference in playing hardball in a real estate deal than putting the entire world economy at risk.
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Not only aggressively implemented, but nonsensically calculated. They are lying to us about the very foundation of the program.
He’s not a self made billionaire. In 1999 he inherited $440m dollars, which would be worth over $2.5b today if invested in a S&P index fund. Also, his father backstopped his development projects many times before he died.
This aged well. What happens when the market goes way down, but treasury yields go up?
This administration is convinced they are so much smarter than the rest of the world, and not only are they wrong, they likely constitute the dumbest collection of senior leaders in our history, which is really saying something. Endless hubris.
The 10-year bond action is surprising. Yield taking off tonight (approaching 4.5% as I type this). Seems the bond market expects inflation to be a bigger problem than a slowing economy (though we’ll get both if Trump stays the course). We really need something to happen that leads him to lower the new tariff rates. If he’s really willing to negotiate with other countries that provides him an out. Otherwise we’re in for a really rough ride, apparently.
I think it has more to do with China and other countries dumping US treasuries and traders piling on the momentum. A treasury dump coupled with slowing (negative) growth is the worst of both worlds.
1) Stocks down so savings are getting crushed
2) Bond yields surging so America need to pay more interest on its debt
3) Dollar down so everything the US buys abroad is more expensive (on top of the tariffs)
4) Massive tariffs, which are a huge additional tax on Americans, further eating away at their spending power
5) American companies see surging costs and more difficulty doing business abroad with retaliatory measures, and boycotts
6) Cut off the Chinese market and US Agriculture in particular gets absolutely crushed and will require a massive bailout to stay solvent.
And every single bad thing that is happening right now is 100% the fault of DJT and his administration, who decided to gamble on a massive reset of every aspect of the current world order.
And unlike his last administration, if someone with a brain actually does get his ear and advises him to aggressively walk back these tariffs, Trump won’t listen because he’s convinced he’s the smartest guy in the room.
At least we will all get to enjoy Trump’s $92m military parade on his birthday. Good to see he is laser focused on the right things as we stare down an economic catastrophe.
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Agreed. The disconnect between the stock and bond market is more concerning than the stock market being down in and of itself. Suggests foreign countries intentionally dumping treasuries.
A financial newsletter I subscribe to said this morning that this is about the 10 largest hedge funds and the highly leveraged trading of Treasuries:
"Hedge funds are way overleveraged and exposed to moves in the Treasury market via this complex trade, foreign Treasury bond holders are selling, or both.
..."a vicious unwinding of the roughly $1 trillion in hedge fund arbitrage bets would not only hamper the Treasuries market, but others as well, requiring Fed intervention to assure financial stability.
When the US central bank did that in March 2020, during the initial Covid crisis, it engaged in massive outright purchases of Treasury securities, to the tune of about $1.6 trillion over several weeks."
What is far more scary is that the average regulatory leverage, or the ratio of regulatory assets (i.e., levered exposure) to assets under management (or actual, tangible capital), has increased to a record 7.8x from 6.3x a year ago!"
"Hedge funds are way overleveraged and exposed to moves in the Treasury market via this complex trade, foreign Treasury bond holders are selling, or both.
..."a vicious unwinding of the roughly $1 trillion in hedge fund arbitrage bets would not only hamper the Treasuries market, but others as well, requiring Fed intervention to assure financial stability.
When the US central bank did that in March 2020, during the initial Covid crisis, it engaged in massive outright purchases of Treasury securities, to the tune of about $1.6 trillion over several weeks."
What is far more scary is that the average regulatory leverage, or the ratio of regulatory assets (i.e., levered exposure) to assets under management (or actual, tangible capital), has increased to a record 7.8x from 6.3x a year ago!"
The basis trade. Provides opportunity for China to pile on by dumping treasuries. The bond auctions today will be a big deal.
I posted this many times during the Biden ministration.
Number one: inflation is a presidency killer. If Republicans didn’t already learned from the last election, they better learn it now.
Number two: during the last few years of the Biden ministration, when the sport was clamoring for weight reduction, I was adamant that no weight reduction wasn’t necessary, and I had hoped not to see one. Alas, rates were reduced. I do not think we have completely tamed inflation, and the items that undergird it.
Surrounding yourself with sycophants, who are Yasmin is exactly the kind of thing you can get away with in your tiny private real estate business. It is exactly the kind of thing you should avoid when you were president of the United States of America.
While I am frustrated by this actions, this is exactly what he was going to do. I would be angry if this was a sneak attack.
You’re right. Treasury dumping by foreign countries (esp China) is the most likely culprit. They’re hitting us twice - raising tariffs to nearly match ours and raising the price on our sovereign debt. Bessent really has his work cut out for him.
