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Oct 15, 2020 Biden leads Trump by 10 in RCP avg of nat'l polls. Oct 15, 2024 Harris leads by 1....

And Trump leads all of the battlegrounds with the exception of Wisconsin, which he trails by 0.3 pts. The panic is for good reason. If we have learned anything since 2016, it is that not only does Trump always outperform polls using traditional methods, he also always breaks late.

His 10 point deficit on this date in 2020 went down to 7 before the election. He lost by 4 nationally, but less than 1 pt electorally.

Trump voters are naturally skeptical of cold call pollsters. And that skepticism is probably even higher given the even more super-charged divisive environment and distrust of big tech well earned the last four years.

Furthermore, so much of the anti-Trump vote is rooted in hatred for Trump. Is that a voter that breaks late? Hell no. That is a voter that would have crawled over broken glass six months ago to vote for Trump.

The biggest issue I see for Harris is that a late breaking vote is the most likely vote to simply vote on issues. A vote that gets pissed off every time they check out of the grocery store. And this voter not only isn't required to love Trump, it is also a voter that may not have even voted in the past, but now will given the fact that they are pissed.

The working class is more than ever the class of Trump. And that is the part of the electorate most likely to outperform historical turn-out, because the economy is not working for them the way it is working for the NVIDIA shareholder, who has the luxury of prioritizing J6 and abortion over inflation. The J6 / abortion voter has always been priced in, and it got a bump when Harris replaced Biden, but that already happened.

For that reason I think the turnout models for republicans likely under-count the "pissed off factor" towards the incumbent party. Maybe there was an element of that in 2016, but the low / middle class wasn't hurting nearly as badly then, plus they had the recent memory of the late Bush years and the GFC to make them feel things were better than the last time a republican was in office.

If anything, there may be reason to believe the now famous Trump under-polling factor may be even more pronounced this year. And he is 9 pts ahead of where he was last time.
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Ok, Texas celebration is over….what are your early thoughts about Florida?…..

They are clearly not the same team they were early on. Lagway makes then a much better and a more formidable opponent. Just focusing on him, he can be UGA’s worst nightmare. But I haven’t watched enough to know if the rest of the UF team talent matches his ability.

On the other hand, UGA’s defense seems to have found an identity just in the nick of time. So from those who view these games in some serious depth, is this a bad matchup for UGA? Will the talent differential make this an easier game than it seems to be right now? Were your surprised by how easily they dispatched Kentucky?

SIAP...On Bobo

Not sure if this was already discussed, but as much crap as Bobo gets, and often deservedly so, he deserves massive kudos on the timing of the flea flicker. Just one play earlier, Texas thought they were going to get off the field on that play. We get the first down, punching them in the gut for a second, and he uses that moment to whack them over the head while they were staggering. Brilliant timing. After that play, moving all those yards in 2 plays, the air went out of that defense.

I know we like to give Aggies a hard time, deservedly so, but I got this email early this morning from an Aggie

that was Mike Mosley and Gary Kubiak's center at A&M. Not a bad message and spot on.

And just like that was one game a lot of people learned a lot of lessons.

Texas Football learned - WELCOME TO THE SEC! This is big boy Football. You played a truly terrible Oklahoma team that would lose to Fred’s middle school, and Mississippi State, and you thought you were ready for the SEC. Nope.

The entire world learned how obnoxious the Texas fan base is. Throwing bottles and trash and debris on the field after a contested passing interference call??? That happens 10 times in every game. But magically, Texas fans thought that since they are still, after all, THE University, University of Texas, they can affect the outcome of a game by throwing stuff on the field. That was obnoxious as hell I hope they get fined $1 billion.

Sadly, the SEC administration learned that no matter how hard they try to rig this game and this season with that ridiculous schedule, in favor of the university of Texas, the Georgia Bulldogs are just better. I hope UGA broke them and we beat them 100-0.

Even more reasons to hate Democrats

The Center for Countering Digital Hate ( a bunch of ****ing pussies) , are coming after Musk , and free speech again. It appears that Bidens White House is firmly in the middle of this.

My goodness , you Dems will stop at nothing. I wonder what its gonna take to stop this Liberal onslaught ? I have some ideas but youre not gonna like them.

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