Well this thread is pleasant reading. While it can’t be proven, it is most likely that market would be down, but not as much, had Trump been re-elected.
While a bit of a simplification, The Fed, with easy money, and encouraged by Trump to make it even easier/cheaper, set the stage with near zero rates and no investment alternative to equities. Then Covid came and Trump with support of congress threw money at people which lit the flame of investment speculation and inflation. Biden comes in and with the support of congress, throws even more money at it, and worse, after inflation clearly not “transitory” and Fed raising rates, tosses in the so called inflation reduction act plus student loan forgiveness on top of it, neither of which are helpful.
The low Rates and fiscal stimulus (throwing money at everyone) caused equity prices to rise far above any semblance of fair value. This bubble grew bigger early under Biden until inflation Spiked and it was clear the party was over and the days of free money were over and rates would go higher for longer, And he did exactly the wrong thing and threw more money at the problem.
So post Covid valuations were never sustainable, and Covid spending under Trump set the stage for a market decline as it (together with low rates) was inflationary, But Trump never would have pushed the additional spending that Biden did, or at least not to that level.
So roughly speaking, if we are down 20% today, the first 10% was going to happen anyway, and the second 10% is on Biden.
Hopefully, Trump Stays out of the way in 2024 as he is the only person Biden has a chance of beating, just Like Trump is the reason the dems have the Senate today, and was the only person Biden could beat in 2020. Desantis would clean Joe’s (or any other Dem’s) clock in 2024. Just like Italy and Sweden, enough Voters are tired of the left so this should Be a huge republican year but they nominated too many weak (trump) candidates to get the big wave victory they should get given economy et al. And Roe v Wade doesn‘t help either, but it has more to do with the bad candidates.
Fair and balanced