You forgot to mention the markets setting new highs every week.
Illegal border crossings are down and would be even more so had Trump no scotched the border deal for his personal political gain.
Regarding the economy, it's not the nightmare story Trump wants it to be.
- Real GDP Growth: The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024, a significant rebound from a slower pace earlier in the year, which saw a 1.4% increase in the first quarter
. This growth is attributed mainly to strong consumer spending and business investment, particularly in sectors like manufacturing and equipment
- Revisions to Historical Data: Recent revisions have shown that economic growth from 2021 to 2023 was stronger than previously reported. Real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) also saw an upward revision, indicating a healthier economic recovery post-COVID
. The revised data suggest that real disposable personal income has increased more than initially thought, contributing to a higher saving rate.
Consumer Spending and Inflation
- Consumer Spending: Forecasts predict consumer spending will rise by 2.4% in 2024, bolstered by increased disposable incomes and a recovering job market
. This is crucial as consumer spending drives a significant portion of U.S. economic activity.
- Inflation Trends: Inflation has been on a downward trend, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling below 3.0% in July and expected to decrease further to around 2.7% by the end of the year
. This decline in inflation is seen as a positive development, allowing for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Employment and Labor Market
- Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021. Despite this increase, labor market indicators suggest ongoing job creation, although at a slower pace compared to earlier in the year.
. Analysts remain optimistic that employment will continue to grow gradually.
- Wage Growth: Wage growth is also expected to slow as inflation decreases, which may affect consumer spending patterns moving forward.
Future Outlook
- The overall economic outlook remains positive, with projections for GDP growth of 2.7% in 2024 and continued expansion anticipated through 2025
Business investment is expected to remain strong, supported by government initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and investments in technology sectors.