Hate to say it but I think Auburn and Florida are almost certainly losses. So we need to win 3 of @A&M, vs. Mizzou, @ Texas, @ SCAR, vs. Vandy.
Losing to SCAR or Vandy almost isn't worth talking about--that happens and we're out, barring a miracle. So let's focus on A&M, Texas, and Mizzou. 3 teams that should by all rights be in the Big 12, but it's too late for that now.
They all play at a slower tempo, rebound well, and don't rack up a ton of assists, but are sort of mixed in terms of team strengths. A&M is an elite defensive and rebounding team, Mizzou has a top-15 offense and are no joke on the boards themselves, and Texas is pretty balanced. I think the key to these games will be our front court rotations. All three of these teams will be trying to take advantage of our young front court starters, blow us off the glass, and score inside. If that happens we're toast. CMW needs to be surgical about when to bring in Somto, when to rest Asa, and when to sprinkle in Abson/James. A 5-minute stretch where Cyril loses discipline, Godfrey commits quick dumb fouls, or Dylan James runs around like a baby deer could be the difference between us wining 2/3 of these and losing all three.
We also need to kick the ball out and hit our open threes. None of these teams are in the top half of the conference in opponent 3-point %, and they're all better at defending the 2 than the 3. There will be open looks. We will need to knock them down. Blue and Dakota have been slowly warming up from 3 in conference play but we need them to shoot closer to 40% than 30% to have a good chance imo.
Overall I don't love our matchups in any of these games. A&M, Mizzou, and Texas appear to be pretty good at combatting what we do well (defense and scoring inside the arc), nor are we proficient where they are weak (3 pointers). CMW is going to have to scheme up some wins. I won't lie to you and pretend that's a strength of his but it's do or die time frankly, and this is why he gets paid the big bucks.
