My thoughts on how recruiting has changed.
For about ten years - from 2008 to 2018 - Saban and Bama had the no. 1 class, or close thereto, every year. Often by a wide margin. Starting in 2008 per Rivals - 1, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 7, 2, 3, 1, 2, 1, 3. Before Kirby left Bama and instituted Bama East in Athens in 2016, Saban and Bama never took the field when they didn't have more talent than the other teams. Most often, far more talent. You were beaten as they got off the bus.
Kirby started eating into that advantage in 2017, and then NIL started in 2021. By the time he left, Saban was still fielding the most talented teams, for the most part, but the difference had narrowed.
As Kirby grew UGA to where we are today, especially when Saban retired, many of us hoped for, and maybe even expected, UGA to become Saban/Bama 2.0. But it's just not going to happen because of NIL/RevShare (starting in July 2025), Free Agency (the portal), and an expanded CFP. These three things fundamentally changed talent acquisition and will likely drive a greater degree of parity in CFB in the future. This doesn't mean that the top teams won't still be top teams - they will be for the same reasons they were the top teams before the disruption. But enough players will get spread out over more teams (more importantly, the top teams won't get as many top players as they got before), and the ability to move will erode the advantage that Saban had for a decade.
This means that the best teams will lose more often because they are playing teams where the talent gap isn't as wide as before. Teams like UGA will be more talented than 90% of the teams they play, but not to a degree that allows them to overcome poor play, a generational quarterback, or another team that might be better coached that day.
I do think we are still in a good place. UGA is considered a top brand, if not the top brand, and will still get excessive talent. Kirby has built a culture that is as good as any in CFB. Although he has missed on some coaching evals, for the most part, we have been a very well-coached team since 2017. The expanded CFP allows for a margin of error - it would appear two losses will get you in the CFP - which means we will be in the CFP almost every year. On and on.
Now, to the proof, of sorts, that the talent gap is narrowing.
- Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports and The Pod mentioned the other day that pre-NIL, the top 5 recruiting schools each year (they could cycle) captured 44% of the top 100 recruits. Since NIL, that number has dropped to 33%. Interestingly, it was back to 42% this year. But the trend is that the top teams still dominate, just not by as much. If I had the time, I'd like to see the distribution of the top 250.
- Gap between the no. 1 team and the no. 10 team. There was a huge difference between being in the top class and the no. 10 class for a long time. I noticed this when Richt constantly finished in the top 10, only to see 7 or 8 SEC schools in front of us. While you still want to be in the top 3/4, the gap has clearly narrowed:
2025 - 3111 - 2460 - 651
2024 - 3156 - 2464 - 692
2023 - 3366 - 2515 - 851
2022 - 3470 - 2140 - 1330
2021 - 3548 - 2347 - 1201
2020 - 3055 - 2320 - 735
2019 - 3063 - 2460 - 603
2018 - 3461 - 2401 - 1060
2017 - 3433 - 2257 - 1176
I am sure there are better ways to measure this, but I am sure we are going to see the difference between the top dozen teams narrow over the years. Throw in the portal, which means teams will lose more of those blue chips but also will gain some to fill in the cracks, and you are going to see that talent evaluation, great development, and simple good fortune (injuries, scheduling, generational QBs, etc.) are going to make a big difference.
This was a great class, and if we do right around this level of high school recruiting, and hit the portal well, we will have a decade of success, even if it may not Saban/Bama 2.0.