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Looking into some stats about Florida

Everyone knows Florida is 4-3, with losses to the three best teams they have played (Tenn., Texas A&M., and Miami). Florida has beaten Samford, UCF, Miss. St. and UK.

Florida is claiming momentum based on that UK game. However, the UK game may have been a mirage.

Let's compare Florida's last two games, at Tenn. and at home against UK.

At Tenn., a defense comparable to UGA, DJ Lagway, pressed into service when Mertz was injured, was 9/17 (52.9%) for 98 yards 1 TD and 1 Int.

Versus UK, Lagway's completion percentage was worse. He only went 7-14 (50%). However, there was magic in those completions as he threw for an astounding 259 yards on 7 completions (40, 4, 50, 58, 23, 44, 40).

Versus UK, Florida ran the ball 44 times for 196 yards (4.6 avg.), versus 15 passes (1 pass was by someone other than Lagway). Lagway ran the ball for 9 times for 46 yards (he was sacked two times). At Tenn., Florida ran the ball 40 times for 138 (3.5 avg.).

Florida currently has the 46th ranked scoring offense at 30.9 points per game. However, against Miami, Texas A&M, and Tenn., Florida scored 17, 20, and 17 points, respectively (18 point average). For comparison, UGA has the 33rd ranked scoring offense. (33.0 per game).

Florida's defense appears to be the biggest disparity to UGA. Florida is the 66th ranked scoring defense (23.53) compared to UGA at 13th (16.86).

Florida has been particularly bad at 3rd down defense, ranking 77th (allowing 39 out of 98, .398). UGA ranks 14th (allowing 27 out of 90, .300).

Our rush defense is 22nd (107.1 per game). Florida's rush defense is 94th (164.3 per game).

Based on the above, I believe UGA's defense matches up well against Florida. Overall, if we force Lagway to be a pocket passer, play solid run defense, and take away the long passes, we should win easily. These are all strengths of our defense.

Florida

By request, here is my Florida take.

Mertz being down limits what they’re doing offensively. With him they motion guys all over the place and try and force numbers matchups and leave Badger 1v1 on a man matchup they like or try and get you with numbers. With DJ off a bye week there will be more of that than pre bye but not near as much as with Mertz.

With DJ there is less scheme involved to compensate for the bad OL. It will be more static and less trading of sides. They’ll try and sprinkle in a few shots and trick plays. Ultimately though they’re going to try and be super boring and efficient and shorten the game.

The scouting report on DJ per the vent is hilarious. Everyone has prepped themselves for Anthony Richardson with a brain but he’s Will Levis with a brain. He’s 6’3 240, jacked, and can run a little but his game is he’s a unit that’s hard to sack and he’s slinging darts down field. He’s not a dynamic runner, nor elusive. He’s big as hell and STRONG and just quick enough. He doesn’t need his feet to sling rockets. He’s a pocket passer 100% who will occasionally get a few yards. 4.8 kid but he’s 240+ and a grown man to tackle at 18. He’s not a runner. Don’t bring up the 94 yards rushing either like it’s some grand point of emphasis. Sack yardage counts against rushing yards so in the VERY few designed runs he’s had, he averages 5+ a pop when you take sacks away.

Their OL is pitiful, they can run block ok and the TE’s get in the way better than ours do but they can’t pass block us nor run on us. Badger, Dike, and Eugene Wilson are solid. Wilson must be a shithead because he’s far and away better than the other 2 but lost his reps to them. They can get deep against bad secondaries like UTk or Miss state. Not vs our dudes.

The matchup of their offense vs our defense is no bueno for them. They simply do not have the horses upfront or outside to keep us from keying in on Johnson. Johnson is highly average. Their ceiling without TO’s in + territory is 7 points, with around 17. They have no shot in hell on that side.

They’ve gotten way better on D as the year has gone along. Pyburn is scrappy, Sapp is solid, James is meh. Secondary is solid. They’re not deep nor athletic enough to dominate us. Big step down from Texas, closer to Auburn but no Keldric Faulk. Don’t except us to come out and run for 340 on them either. Theyre much better vs the run the 2 game stretch vs aTm and Miss state showed them to be. Simplified things a ton and they’ve been scrappy. They don’t have the pass rush to make us uncomfortable nor the depth.

It will be a very anticlimactic 31-3 type shellacking. They’ll try and shorten the game and we will get our shots as they wilt. ETN will go over 100 TOTAL yards you gambling degenerates and a TD or 3. He’s not going to get enough touches for 100+ rushing unless he hits the big 1.

We aren’t going to line up and run it 40 times on anyone this year unless we’ve boat raced a team and gunner/Bowens take the latter 20 Carries to close someone out. With the first group ETN has a pitch count and they don’t trust Frazier at all. So carries by the first group of backs will be <25 but we will sling it 40-45 times and kill their DL with paper cuts.

It won’t be competitive.

I just can't shake the feeling

that it won't make a tinker's damn who our Dawgs line up against on Sadity, we gettin the W.

Like I reminded everyone 2 weeks ago about tex-ass .....................floor-duh ain't the gumps.

The last time Kirby lost to a team not the gumps was Nov 7, 2020 vs floor-duh.😖

As if Kirby needed another reason to hate these mfers :rolleyes:................................Kirby ain't forgot that shit.

Try as they might, the DAWGS will have their way once again with these miserable jort wearing lizards.

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KIrby-duces-gator.jpg

UGA WR Myth

Was watching an old game from our MNC season in 2021 and I didn't remember all of the pass catching talent we had.

WR's
Pickens (although he was injured)
AD Mitchell
Jermain Burton
Ladd McConkey
Kearis Jackson
Rosemy-Jacksaint

TE's
Bowers
Washington

Man, we have had some big time WR's here. Keeping them has been a bit of a challenge, but they have been here.
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